Early Oscar favourites: Who's in the running?

Ben Affleck in a scene from Gone Girl. Photo / AP

Another awards season has begun, and a handful of ceremonies have already taken place, bestowing honors on the year's best movies. Or, in some cases, the year's pretty good movies.

What's most interesting is how little consensus there is. Those who selected the winners of the Gotham Awards, New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review settled on three separate best features: Birdman, Boyhood and A Most Violent Year. (There is agreement over best actress though: Julianne Moore in Still Alice.)

Here's a look at the winners and which are most likely to repeat their success at the Oscars in February.

The New York Film Critics Circle generally bestows awards on movies that end up nominated for Oscars, even if the winners of the two ceremonies don't always align. Case in point: Last year's winners of the film critics awards included American Hustle (best picture and best screenplay), Steve McQueen (best director for 12 Years a Slave), Bruno Delbonnel (best cinematography for Inside Llewyn Davis) and Cate Blanchett for her leading role in Blue Jasmine. All of these were nominated for Oscars, though the only winner in common was Blanchett.

This year, the big winner was Boyhood, which has definitely been part of the Oscars conversation. Although it's hard to imagine Richard Linklater's 12-year labor of love snagging best picture from the Academy.

The winners:

Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night
Best Actor: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Cinematographer: Darius Khondji, The Immigrant
Best Animated Film: The LEGO Movie
Best Non-Fiction Film (Documentary): Citizenfour
Best Foreign Film: Ida
Best First Film: Jennifer Kent, The Babadook
Special Award: Adrienne Mancia

A scene from the movie Boyhood.

The Gotham Awards are the self-described "quirky" awards show, and the winners are usually independent movies. Still, some of this year's honorees look a lot like front-runners for this year's Oscars race, including Michael Keaton for Birdman and Julianne Moore for Still Alice. It's also worth noting that both the Gotham voters and the New York Film Critics Circle honored Citizenfour, Laura Poitras's documentary about Edward Snowden.

The winners:

Best feature: Birdman
Best documentary: Citizenfour
Best actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Bingham Ray Breakthrough director: Ana Lily Amirpour, A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Breakthrough actor: Tessa Thompson, Dear White People
Audience award: Boyhood
Special Gotham Jury Award: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

A scene from the movie Birdman.

The National Board of Review is perhaps the oldest body that hands out film awards. Like the New York Film Critics Circle, members (made up of "film enthusiasts, filmmakers, professionals, academics and students," according to the group's Web site) tend to honor movies that end up Oscar nominees, if not actual winners. In the last five years, the NBR's best film award has gone to Her, Zero Dark Thirty, Hugo, The Social Network and Up in the Air. All were also nominated for best picture Oscars, and only The Social Network won.

The complete list:

Best Film: A Most Violent Year
Best Director: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
Best Actor (TIE): Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Michael Keaton Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: Edward Norton, Birdman
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Best Original Screenplay: Phil Lord & Christopher Miller, The Lego Movie
Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Breakthrough Performance: Jack O'Connell, Starred Up & Unbroken
Best Directorial Debut: Gillian Robespierre, Obvious Child
Best Foreign Language Film: Wild Tales
Best Documentary: Life Itself
William K. Everson Film History Award: Scott Eyman
Best Ensemble: Fury
Spotlight Award: Chris Rock for writing, directing, and starring in Top Five
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: Rosewater
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: Selma

The Hollywood Film Awards may be "the official start of awards season" (and that's trademarked, by the way), but it's not necessarily a good Oscar predictor. We don't even know who votes for the movies in this barely-watched publicity stunt, which was televised for the first time this year, on Nov. 14. So we can't give much credence to the results. Looking at the winners list, some of the awards are basically nonsensical. How can Jean-Marc Vallee win the award for breakthrough director for Wild when he was Oscar nominated last year for Dallas Buyers Club? And then there's the fact that the big winners are sometimes flummoxed by the fact that their movies aren't even finished yet.

Such as it is, here is the list of winners:

Hollywood Film: Gone Girl
Hollywood Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Hollywood Blockbuster: Guardians of the Galaxy
Hollywood Documentary: Mike Myers, Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon
Hollywood Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Career Achievement: Michael Keaton
Hollywood Animation: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Hollywood Comedy Film: Chris Rock, Top Five
New Hollywood Award: Jack O'Connell, Unbroken
Hollywood Ensemble: Foxcatcher
Hollywood Director: Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Hollywood Song: Janelle Monae, What is Love? from Rio 2
Hollywood Screenwriter: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Hollywood Breakout Performance Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Hollywood Breakthrough Director: Jean-Marc Vallee, Wild
Hollywood Supporting Actress: Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Hollywood Breakout Performance Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars
Hollywood Supporting Actor: Robert Duvall, The Judge