Margot Robbie in Barbie and Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer will help bring hundreds of millions of dollars in box office receipts. Photo / AP
Margot Robbie in Barbie and Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer will help bring hundreds of millions of dollars in box office receipts. Photo / AP
The big launch of Barbie and Oppenheimer should have been a celebratory moment, but an industry on pause has darkened the mood.
The film industry’s happiest weekend in a long time may also be its last happy weekend for many months.
With the dual opening of Barbie, Greta Gerwig’s comedybased on the Mattel doll, and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, a biopic about the mastermind behind the atomic bomb, the pop culture phenomenon of “Barbenheimer” is upon us. Although the movies are wildly different in style and tone, by helpfully landing on the same day, the buildup has so captured the public consciousness that many movie fans, who have been slow to return to theatres at all, are eager to watch two of the year’s most anticipated titles back-to-back.
Analysts predicted a record-breaking box office weekend: Barbie pulled in US$155 million domestically, even topping the opening gross of this year’s previous champ, The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Oppenheimer, also in its first weekend, is set to make an estimated US$80.5 million domestically, a thunderous achievement for a dense, three-hour drama. For a theatrical sector still battered by the pandemic and diminished by the rise of streaming, this potent double win would normally presage popped corks all over Hollywood.
But any Champagne will come with caveats, as the two movies open during a dual strike that has brought the industry to a near-standstill.
On Friday, opening day for both movies, the Hollywood actors strike reached the one-week mark, after the 160,000 members of the SAG-AFTRA union joined members of the Writers Guild of America, who have been on strike since May. Both labour actions are expected to last for months, scuttling plans to put new studio films into the pipeline and jeopardising the ones already set to come out, since actors have been ordered not to promote them during the strike.
“It’s the best of times, it’s the worst of times,” said Michael Moses, who oversaw the release of Oppenheimer in his role as the chief marketing officer for Universal Pictures.
From left: Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Cillian Murphy and Florence Pugh at the premiere of Oppenheimer. Photo / AP
He noted that in the past few weeks, as the “Barbenheimer” hype grew, so did the animosity between the guilds and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, the organisation that bargains on behalf of the studios. With both sides entrenched and the strikes expected to continue into the fall, the mood for many in Hollywood over the weekend shifted between joy and unease.
“Celebrations are tempered,” Moses said. “But we still need a healthy business on the far side of this.”
Even those cheering the success of “Barbenheimer” fear this weekend’s box office sugar high might be short-lived. There are no other Barbie-level blockbusters on the release calendar until Dune: Part Two on November 3, and even that sci-fi sequel could be delayed until next year if the actors strike persists, since stars like Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and Austin Butler would be forbidden to take part in the film’s global press tour.
Already, some films have had their release plans modified as a result of the SAG-AFTRA strike. The Helen Mirren drama White Bird and A24′s Julio Torres comedy Problemista were supposed to open in August and are now without an official release date, while Challengers, a tennis romance starring Zendaya, on Friday abdicated its prestigious slot as the opening-night title at the Venice Film Festival, which begins August 30. That film, like the Emma Stone comedy Poor Things, had been set for theatrical release in September to capitalise on a starry press push at Venice. Now Challengers has moved to April, according to Deadline.
There are no other Barbie-level blockbusters on the release calendar until November. Photo / Warner Bros. Pictures
Venice and the Toronto International Film Festival will announce their full lineups this week, and although those slates have the chance to build on the movie-loving momentum offered by “Barbenheimer” weekend, many wonder if they’ll be lacking the starry prestige titles studios normally send there. “If Oppenheimer were a fall movie and I was taking it to Toronto, I think we’d probably at this point have decided not to take it,” said that film’s awards strategist, Tony Angelotti, citing the cost of reserving travel and lodging for the cast and makers of a major movie: “Would they refund your money if the strike continues?”
While Hollywood braces itself for the next strike-related shoe to drop, Scott Sanders is feeling an unwelcome case of deja vu. As one of the producers of a new movie-musical adaptation of The Color Purple, Sanders has spent months poring over a meticulous release strategy for the Fantasia Barrino-led film, due in theatres on Christmas Day. But all of that hard work could be dashed if Warner Bros. delays the movie, as it did three years ago with another Sanders-produced musical: “In the Heights” was pushed back a full year to June 2021 because of the pandemic, and then released simultaneously in theatres and on HBO Max.
Sanders said the studio has assured him that, so far, no discussions have been had about bumping The Color Purple into 2024. Still, he said, “If the other big tentpole holiday movies or awards-bait films start to shift, frankly, I’m going to be nervous.” He added, “The optimist in me thinks we have six or seven more weeks before we have to start taking Pepto Bismol.”
The hype around Barbie and Oppenheimer could rekindle a love for moviegoing, Sanders said, but there might be few titles left to capitalise on it. “Are we going to keep the momentum going from this weekend?” he said. “Or are we going to suddenly pull the emergency stop in the next month or two and go back to square one again?”
If that cord is pulled, it will have a significant ripple effect. Theatres that are barely back from the brink since the pandemic would be tested once again, while the films that were already dated for 2024 might be forced to free up space. And without the usual influx of year-end prestige films, this year’s awards season could look very different — and, in another way, all-too-familiar.
“Worst-case scenario, every studio on the planet decides to move their fourth-quarter movies into next year,” Sanders mused. “Suddenly, the last contenders for awards are Barbie and Oppenheimer. Then what happens?”
