Avengers: Infinity War's debut peak likely to remain unchallenged

Avengers: Infinity War is estimated to have grossed US$250m in its US domestic debut. Photo / AP

With the massive opening of Avengers: Infinity War over the weekend, the US$200 million ($284m) benchmark continues to become a bit less rarefied. Yet the Disney/Marvel movie has just hit a peak that might not be beat any month soon.

Infinity War grossed US$250 million in its US domestic debut, according to industry estimates on Sunday, topping Star Wars: The Force Awakens (US$247.9m) as the biggest North American opener before adjusting for inflation.

And looking along the horizon line, that mark might just hold up for years.
Because, really: Who's soon going to challenge it?

Disney's other powerhouse live-action franchise is Star Wars, but since 2015, each release from George Lucas' universe has failed to match the numbers of Force Awakens, which represented a huge cultural phenomenon a decade after the prequels.

So don't expect next month's Solo to be much of a threat.

Fox has its own hot Marvel-character franchise with Deadpool, but next month's sequel has been tracking for an opening in the neighbourhood of US$150 million.

And come July, Disney/Marvel's third movie of the year, Ant-Man and the Wasp, would do remarkably well to even open close to Deadpool 2 numbers. (For comparison's sake: Deadpool opened to US$132.4m in 2016; Ant-Man opened to US$57.2m in 2015.)

The only non-Disney/Marvel movie to open north of US$200m is Universal's Jurassic World (US$208.8m) three years ago, so the next true challenger to Infinity War stands to be Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in June - yet even amid brimming summer business, most everything would have to break perfectly for Fallen Kingdom to sniff a quarter-billion-dollar debut.

Plus, it will have competition from such franchise films as Pixar's The Incredibles 2 and Warner Bros' Ocean's 8.

Paramount will trot out its blockbuster Mission: Impossible - Fallout in July, and Warner Bros' Crazy Rich Asians could do well for a comedy in August. But after that, nothing looks to have true potential to surprise in a major way till December's Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns - yet neither of those appears likely to get close to even US$200 million in their debuts.

The next true contenders, it seems, all belong to Disney: Captain Marvel and live-action Dumbo next March, followed by Infinity Wars biggest threat: itself.

The next Avengers sequel, currently untitled, opens May 3, 2019.
And if the second part of this Avengers arc can't beat the first part, then the US$250 million mark could well stand as next year's Spider-Man, Wonder Woman, Toy Story and Frozen sequels, the next Star Wars episode, a live-action Lion King and a Fast & Furious spin-off go whizzing by.

In that case: Enjoy your reign, Avengers, till at least 2020.