Zoellick successor would face big trade challenges

The expected move of United States Trade Representative Robert Zoellick to the No 2 slot at the State Department would leave his successor with a huge slate of unfinished business at a critical time in world trade talks, experts said today.

Business leaders and trade policy specialists credit Zoellick with re-energising US trade policy after a rocky patch in the late 1990s that included a stalemate in Congress on launching new negotiations and a failed meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Seattle.

President George W Bush would have a wealth of choices within and beyond his administration if Zoellick becomes Condoleezza Rice's deputy secretary of state, they said. US officials said his appointment was expected later this month.

Claude Barfield, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said Commerce Under Secretary Grant Aldonas would be a strong candidate to fill the post.

Aldonas, a former staff member of the Senate Finance Committee, "would come to the job with greater preparation" than most other candidates, he said.

His Capitol Hill mileage would be an asset as the administration works to win approval of the US-Central American Free Trade Agreement and other trade legislation in Bush's second term, a number of analysts said.

For that very reason, Bush might want to turn to a current member of Congress to fill the post, said Bill Lane, a lobbyist for heavy machinery manufacturer Caterpillar.

"I think Jim Kolbe (an Arizona Republican) would be at the top of the list," Lane said.

Kolbe has been at the forefront of every trade fight in Congress over the past decade and worked closely with Democrats to win approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Lane said.

Other potentials include Deputy US Trade Representative for Asia Josette Shiner and Bush's former Deputy Assistant for International Economic Affairs Gary Edson, sources said.

Another person mentioned for the post is Robert Kimmitt, current head of global policy at Time Warner Inc and a former State Department and Treasury official.

Cal Dooley, a California Democrat who recently retired from Congress, has been suggested as a contender if Bush wants to reach across the political aisle. However, Dooley just took a job as president of the National Food Processors Association.

The expected changeover would come as the US is hoping to make substantial progress in world trade talks before the WTO's next meeting in Hong Kong in December.

Zoellick's successor would also have to oversee the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations with Thailand, Colombia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and other nations, while trying to revive efforts to craft a regional free trade area covering the Americas.

- REUTERS