He squandered that chance by opposing Ruth Richardson’s necessary measures to restore the Government’s finances.
Later, he decided he wanted to be Treasurer. Once in office, he discovered what all those managing the Government’s finances eventually learn – that the job is largely about saying “no”.
As Treasurer, Peters helped scrap the bipartisan agreement on the superannuation surcharge. He was correct that savings-based superannuation is preferable, but he failed to deliver it.
The surcharge was a 25% tax applied to “other income” that exceeded a specified exemption threshold.
For a single person receiving New Zealand Superannuation, the specified exemption was $4160 annually and the surcharge was calculated as 25% of the amount by which other income exceeded this threshold.
The superannuation surcharge was worth about 10% of the annual cost of NZ Super. My back-of-the-envelope analysis shows that if the surcharge had continued then the Government accounts would now be improved by around $45 billion.
By contrast, foreign affairs suits Peters’ talents. Sir Henry Wotton once quipped: “An ambassador is an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country.”
In today’s world, diplomacy requires exactly the political dexterity Peters has always possessed.
New Zealand must balance our traditional security alliance with the United States against our dependence on China as our largest trading partner. It is a tightrope walk. If any politician in New Zealand can keep us upright, it is Peters.
Last week, the left showed it lacked both the skill and the temperament for such a balancing act.
I have attended United Nations meetings. I never addressed the General Assembly, but I once gave New Zealand’s presentation at the World Bank and IMF annual meeting.
President George Bush snr gave a memorable address. In contrast to Donald Trump, Bush called on countries to include agriculture in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) round.
He declared: “We must let farmers compete with farmers, instead of farmers competing with the deep pockets of government treasuries.”
In my own speech, I repeated that line.
Today, Fonterra is posting record milk returns, the fruit of that American-led push for trade in agriculture. Few New Zealanders realise the key role New Zealand played in freeing up the international agricultural trade.
If I had said before I left for Washington that I would listen to every other speech before deciding New Zealand’s trade policy, perhaps my speech would have made headlines.
By delaying the announcement on recognition of Palestine, Peters got headlines – but at the expense of considered debate.
Critics claim that as the UK and Australia are traditional allies, we should adopt their stance.
Those Labour (and Labor) Governments are engaged in gesture politics to appease their supporters, rather than responding to the realities in the Middle East.
Our Asian allies such as Singapore, Japan and South Korea have not recognised the state of Palestine.
The critics should read Peters’ speech at the UN.
He said: “New Zealand is an enduring supporter of the two-state solution and Palestinian self-determination. Our long-standing policy is that Palestinian state recognition is a matter of when, not if.”
We “were appalled by the barbarity of Hamas’ attack on Israeli citizens” and “shocked to our core by harrowing images of famine in Gaza”.
But “what we have observed since partners’ pre-announcements reveals that recognising Palestine now will likely prove counterproductive. That is, Hamas resisting negotiation in the belief it is winning the global propaganda war, while pushing Israel towards even more intransigent military positions”.
“New Zealand recognition of Palestinian statehood now would serve as little more than an existential act of defiance against an unalterable state of affairs.”
Peters stated that the “gesture” of recognition will achieve nothing. To achieve peace, “we need leadership that is courageous”.
I wish Peters would show the same logic and courage at home as he displayed in New York.
Statistics New Zealand may revise its figure showing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank 0.9%. Other indicators suggest the contraction was not so steep.
But even if the number improves, the underlying outlook is grim.
As Matthew Hooton has pointed out, Treasury’s long-term forecasts have proved uncannily accurate. They show the country on a debt death spiral.
If Peters had not destroyed the superannuation accord by scrapping the surcharge, the Crown’s finances would be manageable.
It will take “leadership that is courageous” to avert a debt crisis.
Today’s Super is unsustainable. Now we must adopt one or all of the following: a savings-based Super, raising the pension age and restoring the surcharge.
Peters smashed the accord on superannuation. Peters needs to fix it.
Courage in foreign affairs is valuable. But courage in domestic policy is indispensable. Gestures are not enough—at home, as abroad.
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