NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

'Trumponomics' takes heavy toll on the world

By Ferdinando Giugliano
Washington Post·
9 Oct, 2018 11:16 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

President Donald Trump's shadow looms large over the world economy. Photo / AP

President Donald Trump's shadow looms large over the world economy. Photo / AP

President Donald Trump's shadow looms large over the world economy.

The US president is presiding over an economic boom in his country that has pushed its unemployment rate to its lowest level in nearly 50 years.

It's not certain that the good times will last, and they may come at the expense of debt sustainability. What's indisputable, however, is the toll that "Trumponomics" is already taking on other countries.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund has cut its global-growth forecast for this year and next by 0.2 percentage points, to 3.7 per cent.

Although its prediction for advanced economies was left broadly unchanged, the fund trimmed its 2019 forecast for the US.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Most important, there was a chunky revision for emerging markets and developing economies: These are now expected to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019 - respectively 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points lower than forecast in July.

In principle, there's nothing wrong with a slight deceleration in global growth. The world economy has enjoyed a decent run over the past few years.

As central banks start to ease back on cheap money, it's natural for consumers and companies to become a little more cautious.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The trouble is that the global slowdown looks largely induced by politics. And the prime suspect is Trump and his desire to put "America first."

The US president has pursued two flagship economic policies since becoming president. One was a mammoth tax cut, which could push his country's budget deficit to its highest point since 2012. The second is an outwardly aggressive trade policy, including steep tariffs against China and the reworking of agreements with long-standing partners such as Mexico, Canada and the EU.

The full impact on the US economy from all of this will take time to assess. Washington has embarked on fiscal stimulus at a time when unemployment was already very low. Whereas that gives the economy a sugar hit, it's more prudent to shrink public debt when things are going well.

So far, the attacks on America's historic friends have turned out to be more noise than meaningful change - as shown by the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Discover more

Business

Farmers face tough times as Fonterra cuts milk price forecast

09 Oct 07:45 PM
Construction

Steel & Tube explains why it rejected Fletcher's move

09 Oct 07:47 PM
Personal Finance

Government crackdown: loan sharks face fines up to $600k

09 Oct 09:10 PM
Freight and logistics

Higher fuel costs 'siphoning money' from wallets

10 Oct 02:36 AM

Yet the US$200 billion ($308.5b) in tariffs on China have triggered a range of retaliatory measures, which the IMF says will damage US growth. The fund estimates that US output could end up a full percentage point lower than where it would have been with no new tariffs.

For the rest of the world, the economic consequences of Trump look worse. There's no sugar rush for the rest of us, temporary or not.

Take, first of all, that fiscal stimulus. It has encouraged the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a steady clip. The risk is that investors will try to guess at future hikes in a disorderly manner. Last Wednesday, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 12 basis points in a single day, ramping up bets that they will rise further.

Emerging markets are already bearing the brunt. Higher US rates will persuade investors to move their funds into assets denominated in dollars, which will push up the value of the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar index has risen nearly 7 per cent in six months and could increase further.

Meanwhile, the IMF has found that capital flows into emerging markets have weakened significantly since the second quarter. If this rush to the exits continues, it will exert pressure on the frailest emerging markets. Argentina has already had to ask for help from the IMF. More might follow.

The other risk is trade. The economy most at risk is, of course, China itself, whose growth projection for next year has been cut by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent as a result of US tariffs. But the IMF fears a trade war could have a knock-on impact on other developing economies.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

It's unfair, of course, to blame Trump for the woes of specific countries. Turkey's and Italy's problems are entirely self-inflicted. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has scared off investors by meddling with his central bank, and Rome's populist rulers have spooked markets with their promise to run higher budget deficits.

Still, where once the US would have been a stabilising force, the opposite is true now. When America comes first, everyone else really is a distant second.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Premium
Opinion

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

21 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Opinion

Nadine Higgins: Alternative ways to get on the property ladder

21 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Opinion

Dellwyn Stuart: The real cost of Govt's retreat on gender equity

21 Jun 03:00 AM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

Liam Dann: The upside to this painfully slow economic recovery

21 Jun 05:00 PM

This recovery is making us sweat, but that might be a good thing in the long run.

Premium
Nadine Higgins: Alternative ways to get on the property ladder

Nadine Higgins: Alternative ways to get on the property ladder

21 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Dellwyn Stuart: The real cost of Govt's retreat on gender equity

Dellwyn Stuart: The real cost of Govt's retreat on gender equity

21 Jun 03:00 AM
Premium
'The way of the future': How delivery apps are redefining supermarket shopping

'The way of the future': How delivery apps are redefining supermarket shopping

21 Jun 12:00 AM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP