Tight lamb supply expected

By PHILIPPA STEVENSON

Meat processors can expect the same number of lambs next season that this year contributed to some in the North Island reporting losses in the six months to March.

The Meat and Wool Economic Service said today that while overall sheep numbers were slightly up the numbers of breeding ewes were at a 45-year low.

In the past year, sheep numbers rose by 1.6 per cent to 44.7 million head, the first increase since the 1987-88 season.

But the rise was in trading stock which would go to the works in the next months. Breeding ewe numbers declined in most South Island regions, remained static in the North Island and at an estimated 29.9 million head were down 1.3 per cent on this time last year.

Economic Service executive director Rob Davison said it was the first time since 1957 breeding ewes had fallen below 30 million head.

Good conditions during the season had led to high expectations for lambing in the coming spring with the lambing percentage - or number of lambs born per ewe - estimated to set a new record of around 120 per cent.

The final result would depend on the weather at lambing time, he said.

"On this basis, the lamb crop for the coming spring is estimated to be similar to that of last year at 35.9 million head."

Meat Industry Association executive director Brian Lynch said the figures confirmed an expected tight lamb supply which would again lead to a high level of competition for stock between companies.

In a similar situation this year major North Island companies Affco and Richmond reported half-year losses of $14.7 million and $1.5 million respectively.

But Lynch said predicted higher carcase weights and lambing percentage could be some compensation for fewer lambs.

"Overall the industry should be in a position to fill its EU quota, which is the critically important one, and to maintain the flow of chilled product."

Richmond livestock general manager Scott Weir expected a positive change in stock availability, particularly lambs, next year.

He was heartened sheep numbers had stopped declining for the first time in 14 years.

Weir said it was important to consider that no statistical information had been gathered from farmers since 1996.

The last full census was in 1994.



But Davison had confidence in the service's figures, which were based on its own survey of sheep and beef farms and took into account land use change.

He looked forward to the results of the present agricultural census as a "calibration" of the service's work.

Beef cattle numbers rose 5.1 per cent to 5.03 million head in the year, the largest increase since 1993-94.

North Island numbers were up 3.6 per cent to 3.67 million, and the South Island by 9.3 per cent to 1.36 million, or the highest southern total in 25 years.

The regions experiencing the largest increase were Marlborough-Canterbury (up 11.7 per cent), followed by Otago (up 7.5 per cent) which were recovering from the 2000-01 drought.

Beef breeding cows numbers were up in all regions except Otago.

Lynch said the level of increase was a surprise but it would position the industry well to maintain a trading level which included a doubling of exports to Korea and Taiwan.

"An overall rise in beef cattle numbers certainly puts the North American market outlook in a more favourable perspective while prices are good there."