NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

The world's economic powerhouses are going to look very different by 2030

news.com.au
19 Jan, 2019 12:24 AM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The world's biggest powerhouses are set to change dramatically over the next decade. Photo / 123RF

The world's biggest powerhouses are set to change dramatically over the next decade. Photo / 123RF

A decade from now, the world's biggest economic powerhouses are going to look very different.

China is set to dominate the world, India will outpace the United States, and Egypt's economy will rise well above Australia's into the top 10.

The world's total population is expected to hit around 8.56 billion, with Asian countries alone making up almost five billion.

According to a recent Standard Chartered report, seven of the world's 10 largest economies in 2030 will be from emerging markets.

All in all, Asia will experience major growth, with the continent's share of GDP rising from 28 per cent to 35 per cent by 2030 — matching that of Europe and the US combined.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

At the same time, the report predicts a majority of the world's population — around 5.4 billion people — will enter a middle-class income group by 2030, up from three billion in 2015.

Both China and India are predicted to overtake the United States as the world's largest and second-largest economies, respectively.

The US will drop to third place at US$31 trillion ($47.4t), followed by Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

China

China has long been predicted to become the world's greatest economic powerhouse.

According to the Lowy Institute's latest Asia Power Index, the rising superpower is set to surpass the United States in economic size, to become the most powerful country in the Asia-Pacific region.

But the country's GDP growth will moderate to 5 per cent by 2030, reflecting a natural slowdown based on the sheer size of its economy.

Its economy is expected to hit US$64.2t.

Discover more

Business

It's Jacinda Ardern's chance to shine — but can she show substance too?

18 Jan 04:00 PM
Business

Huawei ban: Canada won't be deterred by Chinese threats

18 Jan 08:20 PM
Business

E-commerce wars: Asia's richest man goes after Jeff Bezos

18 Jan 10:46 PM
Business

'It isn't nirvana': What a four-day workweek is really like

18 Jan 11:34 PM

India

India's GDP growth rate is expected to accelerate to 7.8 per cent to US$46.3t.

According to projections from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, India is projected to be the world's fastest-growing economy over the coming decade.

It's also on track to surpass China as the world's most populous country.

"India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8 per cent by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC)," the report said.

But according to a Forbes analysis, India faces several challenges ahead. Some of its largest states are also its poorest. The GDP per capita of the capital, Delhi, is roughly equal to that of Indonesia at around US$4000. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — two of India's poorest states — are on par with sub-Saharan Africa at less than US$1000.

United States

The United States is expected to lose its position as the world's largest economy.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Standard Chartered has already projected that China will overtake the US at some point next year, when measured in terms of both purchasing-power-parity exchange rates and nominal gross domestic product. Using just the former, China is already considered the world's largest economy.

By 2030, the US economy will sit at US$31t.

Indonesia

Australia's northern neighbour, Indonesia, will rise to having the fourth biggest economy in the world.

The world's most populous Muslim country will see its GDP rise from US$3.2t to US$10.1t in 2030.

Experts have predicted Indonesia's economy will be three times the size of Australia's by 2030.

Turkey

Turkey will rise from the ninth to fifth-largest economy in 2030, with its overall GDP rising from US$2.2t to US$9.1t.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Turkey's economy has grown rapidly over the past two years despite adverse shocks. According to a 2018 OECD report, labour productivity in the country now exceeds that of several other catching-up OECD economies.

"Sustained job creation outside agriculture, which accelerated in the 2010s, has improved wellbeing, notably in less-developed regions," the report notes.

Brazil

Brazil's economy is expected to grow strongly over the next decade, with its GDP projected to rise from US$3.2t to US$8.6t by 2030.

Egypt

Of all the countries on this list, Egypt will make the biggest leap.

The only Middle Eastern country to feature in the top ten is projected to leap from 21st to 7th place over the next decade — a massive jump that coincides with the country's population, which is expected to increase over 30 per cent to 128 million by 2030.

In other words, between figures from 2017 to 2030, Egypt's economy will grow an astonishing 583 per cent.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Egypt's GDP will rise from US$1.2t to US$8.2t by 2030.

Russia

Russia's economy is expected to drop from sixth to eighth place on the list — but the country's economy will still grow sizeably despite western sanctions.

Last week, a World Bank economic outlook released earlier this month said it expects Russia's GDP growth rate to increase to 1.8 per cent in 2020 and 2021.

According to the International Monetary Fund, western sanctions will be outweighed by the positive impact of rising world oil prices on the Russian economy.

By 2030, Russia's GDP will be US$7.9t, according to the report.

Japan

Japan's economy is expected to drop from 4th to 9th place over the next decade, with fears the country's shrinking workforce and ageing population could undermine years of economic growth.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

By 2030, the country's population aged 65 and older is expected to rise to 30 per cent, from 17 per cent in 2000.

Japan's GDP will rise from US$5.4t to US$7.2t.

Germany

By 2030, Germany will maintain the strongest economy in western Europe, rounding out 10th place on the list.

The country's economy is forecast to grow from US$4.2t to US$6.9t.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Premium
Retail

'The way of the future': How delivery apps are redefining supermarket shopping

21 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
Opinion

Bruce Cotterill: Is it time to reassess our independence?

20 Jun 11:00 PM
Premium
Opinion

Mary Holm: Embracing non-financial investments for a happier retirement

20 Jun 05:00 PM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
'The way of the future': How delivery apps are redefining supermarket shopping

'The way of the future': How delivery apps are redefining supermarket shopping

21 Jun 12:00 AM

Supermarkets like FreshChoice Epsom now stay open until 9pm for online orders.

Premium
Bruce Cotterill: Is it time to reassess our independence?

Bruce Cotterill: Is it time to reassess our independence?

20 Jun 11:00 PM
Premium
Mary Holm: Embracing non-financial investments for a happier retirement

Mary Holm: Embracing non-financial investments for a happier retirement

20 Jun 05:00 PM
Premium
Bridget Snelling: How financial education can transform NZ's small-business landscape

Bridget Snelling: How financial education can transform NZ's small-business landscape

20 Jun 03:00 AM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP