Household living costs still punishingly high for many, Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod says

Lyttelton Port. Kiwi consumers have sustained years of punishing price rises, a bank economist says, but there are some positive signs on the horizon. Photo/ File

Household inflation was up in the September quarter, with the poor and elderly feeling the impact of price rises more than many others did.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said costs across the year had risen sharply for every major demographic cohort in the latest household living costs price indexes (HLPI) from Stats NZ.

“Living costs for all households are up about 25%, irrespective of whether you’ve got a mortgage or not,” he said this afternoon.

“The cost of living crisis over the past few years has been felt by pretty much everyone.”

Ranchhod said many of the increases were in non-discretionary areas such as mortgage and insurance costs.

Those costs were corroding household discretionary income, he said.

Ranchhod said some living cost pressures had been easing recently but others still were not.

Stats NZ today said inflation in the three months to September 30 for all households was up 1.0% on the previous quarter.

That was also higher than the previous quarter, when inflation for all households was up 0.6% compared to the March quarter.

The data released today showed superannuitants faced inflation of 1.7% in the September quarter.

For the lowest-expenditure household group, quarterly inflation was 1.6%.

For beneficiaries, quarterly inflation was 1.1%.

For Māori, it was 0.8% and for the highest-expenditure household group it was also 0.8%, according to Stats NZ.

Year-on-year

Across the year, living costs inflation across all households was up 3.8%, with only minor variation between demographic groups.

The highest-expenditure household group experienced inflation of 3.7%. For the lowest-expenditure household group, it was 4.3%.

Stats NZ said the HLPI measured how inflation affected various different household groups, plus an all-households group.

In contrast, the Consumers Price Index (CPI) measured how inflation affected New Zealand as a whole. In the September quarter, annual inflation as recorded in the CPI was 2.2%.

The “all households group” or average household represented all private New Zealand-resident households, Stats NZ said.

“A key use of the CPI is for monetary policy, while the HLPIs provide insight into the cost of living for different household groups,” the statistics agency added.

And whereas the CPI captured the cost of building a new home, the HLPIs captured mortgage interest payments.

“In the HLPIs, interest payments increased by 18.2% for the average household in the 12 months to September 30,” Stats NZ added.

“In the CPI, the cost of building a new home increased by 2.5% in the same period.”

‘Pressure on spending power’

“The labour market is cooling and wage growth is slowing down,” Ranchhod said.

But some relief might arrive with cuts to the Official Cash Rate, he said.

‘We’re picking that the Reserve Bank is going to cut the OCR again by 50 basis points in November.”

And he expected further, more gradual cuts to follow.

“A lot of households will still be feeling a lot of pressure on their spending power.”

But he said several broader trends around inflation and import costs were heartening, and in combination with possible OCR cuts those trends could bring good news for Kiwi households.

The US dollar weakened on Monday, with the Financial Times reporting global markets reined in bets on Republican nominee Donald Trump victory in this week’s US presidential race.

The moves came after a highly-regarded poll showed a surprise surge in support for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in Iowa.

Ranchhod said geopolitical events would have some influence in New Zealand’s economic outlook for the months ahead, but whether Trump or Harris won this week would likely not make much difference.