In the United States, it was painful to watch an elderly man in cognitive decline. Before
href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/joe-biden-v-donald-trump-debate-new-york-times-editorial-board-calls-on-biden-to-drop-out-of-us-election-race/4J26GJ4XENDB7J4HSRF63E4VMM/" target="_blank">the debate, Nate Silver, the famous pollster, had Joe Biden’s chances of re-election at just 33%. Unless Biden withdraws it will be Trump by a landslide in my opinion.
The New Zealand Government needs to prepare for a Trump presidency. What does Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all imports mean for our trade? For world trade? Is this a good time to be joining a military alliance aimed at our biggest trading partner with whom we do have a free trade agreement?
In the United Kingdom, the Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Labour leader of the opposition Keir Starmer also debated. Their debate was a draw but will be just as decisive. The Conservatives are 20% behind. The debate did nothing to alter the fact that on Friday (NZ time) Labour will likely win a landslide victory.
There are lessons for New Zealand.
Eighty-year-olds, who I feel closer to every day, have a role in society but it is not being the country’s leader.
For another viewpoint: Five takeaways from the first Donald Trump-Joe Biden 2024 debate
In the USA and the UK both governments lost control of inflation. Nothing undermines the voters’ trust quicker than being unable to rely on the currency. It is inexplicable that those responsible for our inflation are still in charge of the currency.
Sunak has given a lesson in how not to campaign. He caught his own party by surprise by calling an early election, then he left the D-Day celebrations early and delayed acting against members of his own party who placed bets on the election day.
It is hard to win when you have been in power for 14 years. The Conservatives were going to lose whether the election was now or in the British autumn.
The Tory party has been in existence for around 250 years. It is the most successful political party ever. The Tories have won elections by pragmatically offering competent government. When thinking about today’s Conservatives, competency is not an adjective that springs to mind. Brexit has not been a success.
One compelling argument for leaving the European Commission (EC) was to be liberated from the EC’s red tape. Most EC regulations have been retained so why leave?
There are many examples of British red tape. A needed housing development was declined because it might affect some bats although no bats had been detected.
Britain has a housing crisis. Like New Zealand, the planning laws make it too hard and too expensive to build. The Conservatives failed to deliver planning reform. If the coalition fails to quickly deliver Resource Management Act reform it too will pay an electoral price.
Another lesson is that the electorate hates sleaze. The Conservatives have been engulfed in scandal. Using inside information to bet on the election date is just the latest example.
This behaviour comes from a belief by some MPs that the rules do not apply to them.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has moved swiftly and decisively against any suggestion of impropriety by one of his MPs. The British election will show Christopher Luxon’s tough stance is correct.
The Greens have claimed that the mental health of their MP comes before transparency and accountability.
Te Pāti Māori MP Takutai Moana Natasha Kemp refuses to front the media regarding the serious allegations of misuse of census data for electoral advantage.
The New Zealand electorate will not tolerate sleaze.
While governments lose elections the opposition must position itself to win. The British Labour Party realised after its disastrous defeat in 2019 that the party was unelectable. The British Labour Party replaced its leader and the socialist agenda. Keir Starmer’s message is he is here to serve. The UK Labour manifesto pledges competent government. It is not a claim the present New Zealand Labour Party can make, in my opinion.
The US and UK elections raise serious questions about the state of democracy. In America the party primaries have delivered presidential candidates most Americans regard as being too old. In primaries, the candidates elected are so extreme that the US Congress is dysfunctional. America needs to find a better way to select candidates.
In Britain, the Tories having the leader elected by the party members has been a recipe for electoral disaster.
I have huge respect for citizens who join political parties. These volunteers are essential for a citizen’s democracy. But party members are not accountable. They often hold much stronger views than the electorate.
In New Zealand, like the UK, having the party members elect the leader has often resulted in leaders who cannot appeal to the centre where elections are won.
The winning formula is for parties to select candidates who are competent and motivated by a desire to serve. Then let the MPs, who are accountable to the electorate, select the parliamentary leader.
