Agricultural economists are forecasting a national lamb crop this spring of 119 per cent, 4.5 percentage points below last season's record.
Depending on the severity of spring weather, this would produce a lamb crop of 31.7 million lambs, 1.4 million fewer than last season.
Rob Davison, executive director of the Economic Serviceat Meat and Wool Innovation, made the forecast after releasing the survey which showed the national sheep flock dropped 1 per cent to 39.15 million in the year to July 1.
It was the 15th consecutive year sheep numbers had declined, Mr Davison said.
Sheep numbers have now declined in 20 of the past 21 years after peaking at 70.3 million head in 1982.
New Zealand's beef cattle numbers increased by 0.9 per cent over the past year, the third consecutive yearly rise. The national beef herd numbered 4.54 million at June 30.
Beef cattle numbers fell sharply between 1995 to 2000, and even after three years of increased numbers, still remain well below their peak of 5.18 million head in 1995.
