KEY POINTS:
Food and petrol costs have soared and the economy has been squarely in recession this year, but a new global spending index is forecasting New Zealand retail spending to grow 2.5 per cent in the second half of this year.
The MasterCard Worldwide Index" of Retail says the
retail spend should reach $19 billion over the next six months.
Stuart McKinlay, Country Manager New Zealand, MasterCard Worldwide, said the forecast "should be welcome news for a retail sector that has been bracing for downturn."
The 2.5 per cent increase has been forecast despite the same company's global consumer confidence index reporting that New Zealanders are becoming increasingly pessimistic about their own financial future.
"The data suggests that while New Zealanders may be feeling less confident in the economy as a whole, they are continuing to manage their retail spending appropriately," said McKinlay.
All 12 Asia/Pacific markets surveyed for the index are expected to continue seeing positive growth in retail sales, with China again the stand out performer.
Retail sales there are estimated to grow at a rate of 18 per cent.
While Mastercard's research is looking ahead to the future, latest numbers from Statistics NZ showed a slight rise in electronic card transactions, but a flat overall trend.
The most recent Electronic Card Transactions survey, which looked at June figures, showed rises in spending on durables, fuel retailing and consumables were offset by falls in the non- retail and hospitality industries. The survey measures the value of transactions on all debit, credit and charge cards made with New Zealand-based merchants.
Statistics NZ said the trend for the total ECT series has flattened since March, with a monthly growth rate of 0.1 per cent for each of the past three months - the slowest since the series started in October 2002.
Before March, the general monthly trend was for an increase of 0.5 to 1 per cent. Statistics NZ said the trend reflects not only changes in consumer spending and prices, but also shifts in payment methods.
With tax cuts coming next month, along with an expected cut in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank next week, most economists will be expected retail spending to increase for the rest of the year.
Things are looking up for retail spending in other parts of the Asia Pacific region, says the MasterCard research, with Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines, expecting to have good retail spending growth, with growth of 12 per cent, 9.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent respectively.
Markets which remain more conservative but still show predicted growth include, Taiwan and Japan, with a year on year growth expected to reach 2.9 per cent, and 1 per cent, respectively.
The company also says the projected growth in retail sales needs to be put in perspective by taking account of the rise in inflation in most Asian markets - which means that in real terms projected growth is "less robust than indicated."
- HERALD ONLINE