Trump is promising to end the war in Ukraine and ditch red tape
Richard Prebble is a former Labour Party minister and Act Party leader. He currently holds a number of directorships and is a member of the Waitangi Tribunal.
I know why Donald Trump won, what he has promised to do first and what it means for us.
When Trump was President, I was the director of a company in the United States. The economy was better. America is tied up in red tape. Trump’s policy was to repeal three regulations for every new one. This time it is to repeal 10 regulations for every new one.
We have 19 ministers making regulations and one in charge of repeal.
Inflation is a political killer that hits those on fixed incomes and wages the hardest. Why vote for a Government that cannot control the cost of living?
Here those who created inflation are still in charge of monetary policy.
The Biden administration lost control of the border.
Our surge in immigration is a reason our housing, schools and hospitals are overwhelmed.
Parties that are led by failures are punished by the electorate.
Kamala Harris out-fundraised and out-debated Trump. There was Kamala mania. But it was not credible to claim to be “turning the page” while saying she would not have changed a thing.
The Democrats appear powerless to end either the war in Europe or the Middle East. Trump is the peace candidate promising no foreign wars.
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Trump has pledged to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.
The Ukraine war is a horrendous tragedy.
It is estimated there have been a million casualties. Around $816 billion will be needed for Ukraine’s recovery. The war has cost Russia over $354 billion .
The war has increased world food prices and decreased world trade.
We have felt the war at the petrol pump.
Colombian writer and journalist Gabriel Garcia Marquez has observed: “It is easier to start a war than to end it”.
To force negotiations, I suspect Trump will threaten both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
There are media reports that President Biden intends to urge Trump to “stay the course in Ukraine”. The West’s strategy has been to continue the war until the last Ukrainian soldier.
The day after the US election the MMP German Government collapsed in part because the parties could not agree on how to continue funding assistance to Ukraine.
The German economy, Europe’s economic powerhouse, is in recession. Demographic change means the number of German workers is in rapid decline. Like New Zealand, the Social Democrats think Labour and Green’s solution is more spending, taxes and borrowing. The Free Democrats, think Act, want less borrowing, less tax and fewer regulations.
Peace in Ukraine would enable the German election to focus on the issue that may be the real cause of the Ukraine war, demographic change.
Russia’s demographic challenge is even greater. Russia’s population is ageing and declining. Putin’s real motive for annexing Crimea may have been to add 2.4 million to Russia’s population and for invading Ukraine to add another eight million.
If Putin hoped to overcome Russia’s population crisis he has failed. An estimated 700,000 Russians have fled overseas to escape conscription. The Russian birthrate has fallen well below replacement. And then there are the casualties.
Ukraine’s population has fallen by 10 million. The birthrate is also below replacement. Both countries are running out of troops.
Both sides may be more willing to end the war than their public statements. Last week’s Economist magazine claimed there is disillusionment in the Zelenskyy Government caused by the gap between the Biden administration’s rhetoric and its practical support.
Putin knows that authoritarian governments look strong until suddenly they are not. The Ukrainians have won the naval war. Ukraine occupies 1300 sq km of Russian territory.
While it is two and half years since the Russian invasion, in eastern Ukraine the war has been going for over 10 years.
We should support Trump trying to get a settlement.
The Middle East war is beyond my pay grade. I suspect the change in New Zealand’s position to vote for an anti-Israel gesture UN resolution is motivated by our diplomats’ desire for a seat on the Security Council.
Security Council membership is an ego exercise that brings no benefits. The so-called low-cost strategy for membership appears to be taking sides.
We have forgotten that New Zealand’s independent foreign policy enabled this country to sell sheep meat to both sides of the Iraq/Iran war.
Trump’s dislike of alliances could mean the Government has wasted a year on the possible membership of Aukus.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters may regret that neither has found time to visit our biggest trading partner, China.
The lesson of the Trump victory is the importance of sound money, less red tape, controlled immigration, good leadership and no foreign wars.
