Richard Prebble: Why Chris Hipkins should call a snap election

OPINION

I have decided to give the new Prime Minister a break. I will give Chris Hipkins the advice I gave Geoffrey Palmer when he became Prime Minister: “Ask for a mandate to go in a new direction. If you wait until Election Day Labour will be swept away”. Palmer waited and Labour was swept away.

New leaders usually get a bounce in the polls. I would expect Hipkins to get a bounce.

The reason he has to go early is because he does not have a mandate to change policies.

If he has solutions for crime, the cost of living, the failing health system and the unworkability of co-governance he needs to set them out and then seek a mandate for this new direction.

National would be wise not to underestimate Hipkins.

Hipkins says the reason he is able to get things done is because he knows politics. He has not just been an MP since 2008 and then a minister but before that he worked in the Beehive for Trevor Mallard and then Helen Clark.

Hipkins says this has given him an advantage over MPs who have come into Parliament from a different career.

Incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins during speeches at Rātana Pa Marae on Tuesday. Photo / Mark Mitchell

It is my own observation that what Hipkins says is true. It is claimed any complex skill takes 10,000 hours of practice to master. Politics is the ultimate complex task. It requires at least 10 years of practice to master.

Hipkins is a proven campaigner. He has massively increased his majority. He knows how to portray himself as an ordinary Kiwi. “It’s a big day for a boy from the Hutt.”

But also, Hipkins is Mallard-trained and he has a ruthless streak.

Jacinda Ardern would never claim three women were sex workers and had used false information to leave the Auckland lockdown. Hipkins has never apologised.

My advice to Hipkins is being Prime Minister does require him to be prime ministerial. Leave the civilians alone. Never personally attack people outside of politics.

Politics is a bear pit.

Hipkins is about to take full advantage of National leader Christopher Luxon’s struggle to explain why he is in politics. Hipkins is about to define Luxon.

The latter needs to rapidly lift his game and explain clearly what he is for and - just as important - what he is against.

Hipkins is going to have no difficulty in doing just that.

I hope Hipkins - who apparently was tipped off by Ardern before Christmas - has taken time to reflect. The best politics is results.

Hipkins was a vigorous minister in charge of the Covid response but with a bit more thought he would have been a better minister. We lost our place in the vaccine queue, MIQ was a lottery, the over 100 days of the Auckland lockdown was too long and mandatory mandates shattered the team of five million.

I am sure Hipkins is sincere in his belief in state education. His allegations regarding charter schools were reckless. An independent report found they were wrong. Māori and Pasifika pupils greatly benefited from charter schools.

Hipkins has announced he is doing a review of Labour’s policies. Reviewing Labour’s opposition to charter schools would be a good start. New Zealand’s ranking in the international educational comparison tests are the lowest ever. Māori and Pasifika pupils are voting with their feet and fleeing state schools.

Appointing Carmel Sepuloni Deputy Prime Minister was not just good politics. We can all take pride that in New Zealand a person from the Pasifika community can rise to be Deputy Prime Minister. Her appointment means Hipkins has one achievement.

New Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Carmel Sepuloni. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Reappointing Grant Robertson was politically necessary but makes calling a snap election a necessity. Labour will continue to borrow and spend so putting upward pressure on inflation. The Reserve Bank will continue to aggressively raise interest rates. It is 7 per cent plus mortgages that are the greatest threat to Labour’s re-election.

The most reliable predictor of election results is the right way/wrong way poll. For around 18 months the polls indicate most of us think the country is going the wrong way.

Hipkins can only win an election if he can produce a new agenda to take us in a new direction. He has no mandate for a new direction. He can only get a new mandate from an election. I do not know if Hipkins can win a snap election. I know if he waits until October Labour will be swept away.

• Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party.