Last week's news of postal votes electing Joe Biden overwhelmed our own extraordinary postal voting results.
I never thought Labour could win Northland. Okay, the majority is just 163 and Shane Jones split the vote.
I would have bet my parliamentary pension that it was impossible for Labour, orany party, to win the party vote in every electorate, with the exception of Epsom. No one predicted this outcome. It is the election result one expects in the "glorious nation of Kazakhstan".
In our own way, New Zealand politics is as volatile as America. The "team of five million" moved in lockstep. Historians have noted New Zealanders are the Prussians of the South Pacific. Once we decide to do something, we go all the way.
In my parliamentary career I experienced four electoral landslides. I came into Parliament as the Muldoon landslide wiped out the Kirk landslide. Labour was reduced to just 32 MPs, one less than the present National Opposition. No one was more surprised than the Labour caucus when at the next election Labour won the popular vote.
Landslide governments look invincible but every landslide produces a swing back. The very size of the victory brings the seeds of the reaction. It is impossible for any Government to meet the expectations of Rangitata, the nation's most conservative electorate and Rongotai the most liberal. But it is very possible to disappoint voters from both electorates.
The more you examine the election result the more extraordinary it is.
Despite having four leaders in three years, shocking bad behaviour not just by Jami-Lee Ross, but a string of MPs and then trying to outspend Labour with an economic manifesto that did not add up, National still received one vote in four. It is a very strong brand.
The stunning return to Parliament was by the Māori Party. One MP is an independent. Postal voting increased representation. Two MPs are a party.
The Māori Party is now an option in every Māori seat. In the last three years virtually all the statistics for Māori have got worse. The only effective programme that improved education outcomes for Māori, charter schools, was dismantled. Proud as Māori are to have the first female Foreign Minister, who will be good, it does not solve any social issue. One can see the Māori Party vote growing.
The third extraordinary result is that the cannabis referendum almost passed. New Zealand is a very conservative country. Most referendums fail. It is going to be hard to find a jury to enforce a law that half the country thinks is wrong.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson with their Cabinet. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The Electoral Commission has published how every general electorate voted. Despite having mixed the Māori ballots with the general it is clear how Māori voted. The polls that predicted Māori would support the referendum were correct. Māori voted overwhelmingly for cannabis legalisation.
Not surprising. Māori are far more likely to be prosecuted for cannabis possession. When Jacinda Ardern was experimenting with cannabis as a young, white, female university student she ran almost zero risk of prosecution. A young, unemployed Māori male is at real risk of prosecution for identical behaviour.
The Prime Minister says the country has spoken and there will be no reform of our drug laws. Māori have also spoken. The Māori constituents have given a much stronger instruction to their seven MPs to reform the law. Labour deciding to ignore the views of Māori has gifted the Māori Party an issue.
Analysis of the postal vote reveals an amazing amount of tactical voting. Just 12 months ago the public opinion polls indicated that this would be a First Past the Post election. It was technically possible no third party would elect a party vote MP. Instead voters have made the most use ever of their two ballots to vote tactically. An estimated quarter of a million National voters voted Labour to keep out the Greens. A significant number of Labour voters voted Green to ensure that party's survival. In Auckland Central Labour voters elected a Green constituency "insurance" MP.
Waiariki elected Rawiri Waititi and then 59.8 per cent of the electorate gave Labour the party vote. The Māori Party's tactical message was a vote for the Māori Party would give Labour another vote in Parliament and the constituency two MPs. It is a message that puts every Labour Māori constituency MP at risk.
If the future is tactical voting then we will see more astonishing elections.
Then there is David Seymour's achievement. It has never been done before, to go from one MP to 10. This was not the result of tactical voting. Act campaigned with its own economic programme, a costed alternative to the other parties' borrow-and-spend policies.
I met with the Act caucus last week. They are impressive. Act is bringing fresh thinking to Parliament.
