Richard Prebble: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has lessons for New Zealand

The latest five-yearly independent Defence Review, released in December, provides sobering reading. Photo / Commonwealth of Australia, Department of Defence

Opinion

OPINION:

In early December New Zealand's Secretary of Defence warned that "Russia has acted in a range of ways that challenge the international rules-based system … including using military force against … Ukraine."

"Russian activities present an acute and ongoing threat", Secretary Andrew Bridgman said in the five-yearly independent Defence Review.

It is a sober document. "New Zealand faces a substantially more challenging and complex strategic environment than it has for decades," the report stated. The basis of our security that nations will follow international law is no longer valid.

The review having proved prescient deserves to be carefully considered. It is logical and well written. It has not gone through the ninth floor PR spin machine.

The Defence Review says China's actions represent a greater threat to New Zealand.

"These include the building and militarisation of features in the South China Sea … Tensions between China and neighbouring states … cyber measures against New Zealand and other states.

"Beijing is seeking to reshape the international system to make it more compatible with China's governance model and national values.

"China has been working to transform the PLA-Navy into a "blue water" force, and China now has the world's largest navy in terms of ship numbers.

"In 2019, China publicly announced its intention to increase its military co-operation in the Pacific."

The report goes on to list the most threatening potential developments, including:

• The establishment of a military base or dual-use facility in the Pacific by a state that does not share New Zealand's values and security interests: Such a development would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region.

The Straits Times claims Kiribati has accepted China's aid to build "Runways, ports, harbours and communications facilities [that] can also be used for military purposes."

For New Zealand's first one hundred years our security rested on the Royal Navy and, since the Battle of Midway, on the US Navy.

The Review finds our defence capabilities do not suit a Pacific that is not dominated by the US Navy. Our most capable defence units are to fight in places like Afghanistan. In the Pacific we only have a civil defence capability.

The report calls for a defence force that is focused on the Pacific "that can deliver credible military effects both independently and as part of broader international efforts." The report warns; "An increased priority and focus on New Zealand's neighbourhood will require trade-offs".

Cabinet has ignored the report. The Prime Minister has so little interest in defence that she first gave the portfolio to New Zealand First and then to the Māori Caucus.

In my view Peeni Henare is totally unqualified to be Minister of Defence but, in fairness, there is no one better qualified in Labour's caucus.

The Minister's "New Defence Principles" are an incoherent babble. He wants to make the treaty part of our defence strategy. His spending priority is "buildings that are healthy, safe and fit-for-purpose". No doubt needed. Warm, dry housing will do nothing to defend our interests in the Pacific.

Minister of Defence Peeni Henare. Photo / Mark Mitchell

A bewildered Cabinet changing the Covid rules daily has not got time to consider the nation's defence. Those in MIQ are less likely to have Covid than Aucklanders.

Tracing and PCR testing has been overwhelmed. The mandates no longer make sense.

We are going to have to manage Covid ourselves. RAT tests essential for self-management still cannot be purchased easily, or by everyone. Some of my neighbours already have Covid. Many households will not be able to afford to buy RAT tests.

Government delay in purchasing vaccines means my 6-year-old grandson is likely to catch Covid before he is eligible for his second jab.

Hopefully National and Act are learning from Labour's mistake. Parties have to use their time in opposition to do the hard policy work, or in government they will be overwhelmed by the daily pressure.

Having a strong defence depends on having a strong economy. The Secretary of Defence notes "As military inflation and technological change gather pace, New Zealand will be increasingly challenged to maintain military capabilities."

Russia was emboldened to invade knowing all the funding for any American aid to Ukraine must be borrowed, and knowing Europe is dependent on Russian gas.

Those seeking to challenge New Zealand in the Pacific know that having wasted 30 years of fiscal prudence this country will be challenged to fund the Defence Review recommendations.

Jacinda Ardern's "Captain's call" to ban the exploration of offshore oil and gas has made New Zealand dependent on imported energy that we are feeling at the pump.

The most important lesson from the invasion of Ukraine is that we have to be willing to defend our freedom. If we are not, no one else will do it for us.

• Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and former member of the Labour Party.