Richard Prebble: Mass immigration - Labour’s biggest U-turn will swamp our infrastructure

In the 12 months to March, 161,900 new migrants arrived. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

Opinion

OPINION:

In last week’s Budget, Grant Robertson failed to mention the economic policy that will have an even greater impact than the massive amount of borrowing and spending: mass immigration.

On average, at least 440 new residents will arrive at Auckland Airport today. In the 12 months to March, 161,900 new migrants arrived.

They will work and pay taxes, but from day one they will also need housing, access to health, education, transport, power, water, sewerage, law and order and welfare. It will be years, if ever, before their taxes can pay for the infrastructure they need.

Before the cyclones, the Infrastructure Commission estimated that this country has an infrastructure deficit of $104 billion. But the commission did not forecast mass immigration.

To determine the population gain, we must deduct the numbers leaving permanently. In the year to March, 96,500 people left — doctors, nurses, tradesmen and the like. The net gain in population was 65,400.

What is scary is that the rate of immigration is accelerating. Westpac economists have noted that if recent trends continue, this year New Zealand’s net gain will be a record 100,000.

Sixty-five thousand people is a big number. It is more than the capacity of Eden Park. The infrastructure needs of our new residents is the infrastructure of a city of around 65,000. That is more than Invercargill’s 2018 census population, which was 54,000, as was Rotorua’s urban population.

Rotorua is a city I know well. Rotorua has a 233-bed hospital, a polytechnic, five secondary schools, four kura and 37 primary schools. The city has an event centre and a 20,000-capacity international stadium. Rotorua is served by five state highways. The Rotorua District has 26,658 dwellings. Not enough. The city’s motels house the homeless.

If the Westpac economists are right, this year’s population rise will be the population of urban Dunedin.

Despite record spending, the Budget does not go anywhere near meeting the infrastructure needed for an extra 65,000 people, let alone 100,000.

There is no new hospital in the Budget. There are just four new schools. There is no new tertiary institution. There is no help for our universities’ financial crisis. The national polytechnic is a train wreck.

The money in the Budget for roading provides nothing for the extra cars that 65,000 people will buy.

Mass immigration means the country’s infrastructure deficit will grow.

The principal reason that our roads are gridlocked, our hospitals are overwhelmed and we have a housing crisis is uncontrolled immigration.

Labour and National added a million people faster than the country could build the necessary houses, hospitals, schools and roads.

Immigration is why the average house in Auckland costs a million dollars. Immigration creates a wealth effect. It is fool’s gold. It fooled voters into re-electing John Key. Chris Hipkins hopes it will fool voters into electing him.

Professor Robert MacCulloch, one of our few internationally recognised economists, says that it is mass immigration that may prevent a recession. The professor points out that recessions are when the total economy shrinks. He says it is possible for the total economy to grow because there are more of us, while our individual share of the economy reduces.

The professor is right. The economy may miss a recession, but individually our quality of life will be poorer. The professor is also right when he says immigration greater than infrastructure can handle is the route to the third world.

Labour promised to cut immigration by up to 30,000 and to have an immigration reset. The promised reset is turning out to be record mass immigration. It is Labour’s biggest policy U-turn.

What is the point of free bus trips when the roads are too congested for the buses to run on time?

As an aside, this column’s prediction that public transport subsidies would prove impossible to remove was right. Subsidies are inefficient. The children of millionaires will ride to school free, paid for by the poor whose children walk to school.

Twenty free hours of pre-school is worthless if the rolls of quality childcare are closed. Free prescriptions are of no assistance if you cannot see a GP.

The demand for a free service is infinite. A study in NZ Doctor in 2021 found there were 48,000 over-prescriptions for antibiotics. Pain medicine is also overprescribed. Patient pressure for “free” prescriptions will lead to more over-prescribing.

Labour has lost its way. Instead of getting pupils back to school, the Government has helped to fund a 24/7, drop-in hub where teenagers can play pool and other games. The Prime Minister opened the first hub as part of his post-Budget PR, saying it is the Government’s “wraparound approach” to combating youth crime.

Why go to school when you can play pool all day? Playing pool all day is preparation for a life on the dole. Failing to educate our children and relying on immigrants to do the work is the way to becoming another Argentina.