How will the ban hit my Huawei phone today?
There will be no immediate effect. It will keep working as usual. And you'll still be able to use the likes of Google Maps and Search, and you'll still be able to download the latest versions of apps like Gmail from Google Play.
A Google spokeswoman told the Herald, "We are complying with the order and reviewing the implications. For users of our services, Google Play and the security protections from Google Play Protect will continue to function on existing Huawei devices."
Will future Huawei phones be able to use Android?
"Existing Huawei devices", is very much the operative phrase in the above paragraph.
Google is playing for time while it assesses its options around supporting future models of Huawei phones, and whether current Huawei phones will be able to upgrade to the next major version of Android which would mean they potentially miss out on whatever new features the operating system software upgrade includes.
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As things stand, it seems unlikely future Huawei phones will be certified for the Google Play store, and that while they could have a bare-bones version of Android, they could miss out on key features like Google Maps, cloud storage with Google Drive, YouTube, Google Photos and Google Duo video calls.
Many of these services could still be accessed via a phone's web browser, but it would be a lot more finicky than using Android apps.
Would that be the end for Huawei's handset business?
No, the Chinese company has reportedly been working on its own mobile operating system software, in case a ban went into place, and its own online store, the little-known App Gallery. But its customers would lose the familiarity of Android, and the convenience of downloading apps and content from Google Play. So it would be a major blow.
It's true that Android (bought by Google in 2005) is open source, meaning any company can use it for free. But it's of limited appeal if Google does end up blocking future Huawei devices from its services like Search, Maps and Gmail and Google Play.
And while Huawei could still distribute security patches through the Android Open Source Project, the AOSP typically gets fixes about a month after Google supplies them to phone makers.
Could I get a refund?
Could you get a refund if your Huawei phone is ultimately blocked from Android updates, security patches or Google's Play store?
Consumer NZ technology reviewer Hadyn Green posted soon after the ban was announced, "If you live in New Zealand and the Huawei phone that you purchased no longer connects to the Play Store, and/or no longer receives security updates: you get a refund under the CGA [Consumer Guarantees Act]."
A recent case saw a Noel Leeming customer awarded $1249.99 by the Disputes Tribunal under the CGA after their Apple Watch stopped accepting updates.
How else is Huawei hit by the US ban?
A number of hardware companies, including chipmakers Intel, Broadcom, Micron and Qualcomm are also banned from supplying Huawei (which said last week that more than $1 out of every $7 of its annual US$70 billion procurement budget is spent buying components from US firms - which of course means the ban will hurt the US tech industry).
That will make it trickier and more expensive for Huawei to make phones, but it will still be do-able if South Korean, German and Taiwanese vendors co-operate (though watch for US pressure to be applied there).
Could the ban slow 5G?
Huawei's core business is supplying infrastructure to telecommunications companies to build their networks.
"Huawei depends on many US companies for components woven into the 5G equipment it makes," a Bloomberg report says.
So the US export ban will slow Huawei's 5G push and push up costs as it sources or develops alternatives.
The Chinese company was already facing problems in a number of countries, including the US, Australia and New Zealand, which have blocked telcos from using Huawei gear in 5G mobile network upgrades.
Is Trump already getting cold feet?
A yet-to-be confirmed Reuters report this morning says the US government will delay the ban for 90 days.
On the US side, there have apparently been fears of job losses that could run into the tens of thousands, given Huawei buys about US$11b a year from American hardware suppliers.
On the Chinese side, there have reportedly been hits that the country could restrict the export of some of the rare earth elements used in high tech manufacturing.
How has Huawei reacted?
Huawei's top executive in the UK, Jeremy Thompson, said the US ban was "cynically-timed" and about economics, not cyber-security.
"We're in the middle of a trade war between two big countries so the timing of this is to inflict maximum hurt on our organisation. We're a football in between this trade war," he said.
Huawei also sent the Herald the following statement: "Huawei has made substantial contributions to the development and growth of Android around the world. As one of Android's key global partners, we have worked closely with their open-source platform to develop an ecosystem that has benefited both users and the industry.
"Huawei will continue to provide security updates and after-sales services to all existing Huawei and Honor smartphone and tablet products, covering those that have been sold and that are still in stock globally.
"We will continue to build a safe and sustainable software ecosystem, in order to provide the best experience for all users globally."
Is Trump Huawei's worst enemy or best friend?
The tech export ban pushed by the US President is of course bad news for Huawei in the short term.
But the Wall Street Journal and others have noted that Trump does indeed seem to regard the ban as a weapon in the trade war rather than a security issue.
As such, it's possible that if the trade war is ultimately resolved, then the security and surveillance accusations that surround Huawei - which pre-date the Trump administration - could melt away as part of China's "reward" for playing ball on tariffs.
That would frustrate security services, but in the final event be a pretty sweet outcome for Huawei.
With its "reviewing the implications" stance, Google is perhaps playing for time and hoping the export ban will indeed be lifted if or when the trade war concludes.
