KEY POINTS:
Telecom investors should this week have a better idea as to who will head the company after Theresa Gattung's departure in June, and a clearer notion on the size and method of the company's capital repayment.
The view in the markets is that the position is still wide
open, although current chief financial officer at Telecom, Marko Bogoievski, is often mentioned as a contender.
This Thursday's third-quarter result should also reveal some details on how big the return of capital will be after the sale in March of its directories group for $2.24 billion.
Analysts favour a share buyback rather than a special dividend because a buyback would boost Telecom's earnings per share.
Telecom general manager of investor relations Mark Flesher said that this week's results announcement would include an update on the search for a new chief executive.
He said the update could include an announcement of a new chief executive, or simply be an update on how the search for a replacement was progressing.
Flesher said there was always the possibility that someone would be found for the job but was unable to start for a while, due to factors such as "gardening leave" or the requirement to hand in notice of resignation.
Goldman Sachs JB Were strategist Bernard Doyle said no obvious contenders were being talked about in the market but said the successful applicant would need to have experience in dealing with the government, which was an area that Telecom had fallen short in.
"In terms of the CEO search it is wide open. We don't really have a firm view either way although obviously Marko has been talked about a lot," Doyle said. "In terms of the challenges Telecom now faces, anyone with an existing relationship or a good track record in working with government would have the positive attribute that Telecom needs at the moment."
Doyle said the new CEO might be someone with a background in state-owned enterprises.
"From what we have been hearing, no one has really shot to prominence in terms of a likely candidate."
Operationally, Telecom's third- quarter performance will be overwhelmed by a decision on the return of capital, according to analysts.
The company will have the ability to return a lot of capital but analysts are conscious that it has a demanding capex requirement as well.
Analysts see a $1 billion capital repayment as a good starting point.
Doyle said the New Zealand the telecommunications industry was in a state of flux.
"There has been a fairly fundamental change in the landscape and there is a lot of baggage that comes with that, so it will be another result where the actual bottom line is overshadowed by those longer term issues," he said.
In third quarter of last year, Telecom made a net profit of $222 million.
