Fran O'Sullivan: Two leaders, two issues, two styles

Labour's Helen Clark and National's Don Brash have pushed the tax row into the background for now.

With international affairs centre stage, it is pertinent to differentiate between their leadership styles by looking at how they have handled two hot issues - the Zimbabwe cricket tour and the nuclear ships debate, aka the US relationship.

Issue 1: The Zimbabwe tour

Timing: Foreign Minister Phil Goff set the agenda by grabbing the moral high ground and coming out against the Black Caps tour (after prodding by the Greens).

The Clark Calculation: What better way to deflect attention from the tax debate - where Labour is haemorrhaging support over its pledge of paltry tax "snips" - by ramping up a "motherhood and apple pie" issue. The media did not pay much attention to Clark's failure to achieve all her demands in Israel's "apology" over the Mossad passports affair - a calculated bonus.

The Brash Reaction: A National Government would write a cheque to NZ Cricket to cover any losses from abandoning the tour. Of course it would.

Brash scores for backing a point of principle, but loses ground as Goff rallies an across-party resolution condemning the actions of President Robert Mugabe's regime and pledges to mount a diplomatic offensive against sporting contacts.

Internal: Goff needs street cred with Labour's left. He is bound to make a run for the leadership if Labour is defeated. He is de facto leader of Labour's right faction. But his behind the scenes protests on human rights abuses in meetings with international leaders do not cut it with the left, which will remain in the majority based on Labour's candidate selections.

Coalition Effect: Labour pulls the Greens back onside by softening growing differences on human rights.

Upshot: Clark and Goff dominate television coverage on a safe issue. But discerning people will note New Zealand may now lose its bid to host the Cricket World Cup. If Goff fails to muster international opinion, New Zealand might also face boycotts if Zimbabwe is prevented from touring here. Ultimately, Labour would not back its principles by writing a cheque to NZ Cricket to cover any losses.

Real Winner: The Maori Party, which wants New Zealand to display consistency in its approach to international relationships. Refreshingly, it does not want sport singled out for different treatment to that taken in trade and economic affairs. Co-leader Pita Sharples says the Maori Party is also against Government interference in the Black Caps tour: "It's their choice."

Issue 2: Nuclear Issues

Timing: July 4 was US Independence Day. It was always a dead cert that the State Department would dolly up a salvo for outgoing US Ambassador Charles Swindells to fire on the dwindling bilateral relationship at political level - notwithstanding yesterday's spin that the embassy did not want to reopen the nuclear debate.

Clark's Miscalculation: Resorted to her stock response. Played Iron Maiden and reiterated Labour's "not for turning" response. Clark is wrong to believe that the ban on nuclear ships is an iconic aspect of New Zealand's brand. This is a sleeper issue; as New Zealand gets closer to China, opinion is shifting in favour of a closer US relationship.

The Brash Response: Mixed messages - again. A headline from a Brash interview saying a National Government may change New Zealand's anti-nuclear policy without a referendum is later clarified by the statement: "National will not change the nuclear-free legislation without a public referendum or an explicit manifesto promise before a general election." If National is considering going to a 2008 election with such a promise, why not declare it now?

Internal: Clark shores up support among the anti-American wing of her caucus. Brash annoys colleagues with another perceived flip-flop.

Coalition Effect: Nil.

Upshot: Neither Clark nor Brash confront the real issue: whether it is time for New Zealand and the US to bury Anzus and forge a new security relationship which confronts regional realities.

Real Winner: Act's Ken Shirley, who attempted to pass legislation to authorise nuclear-powered ships to enter NZ ports. He gets another opportunity to say Labour is trapped in Cold War rhetoric and National is "befuddled". Act simply agrees with Swindells that it is time to rebuild the relationship.