NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business / Personal Finance

SOE Profile: Market wary of any Air NZ share offer

Owen Hembry
By Owen Hembry
Online Business Editor·NZPA·
4 Nov, 2011 04:30 PM7 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

The difference between the Crown owning 51 per cent or 73 per cent of Air New Zealand has been described as barely noticeable at an operational level. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The difference between the Crown owning 51 per cent or 73 per cent of Air New Zealand has been described as barely noticeable at an operational level. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Ten years after the Crown saved Air New Zealand, this Government is looking to cut by nearly a third its stake in the national carrier.

The Crown owns most of the shares in the NZ-listed airline. The potential sell-down is part of an asset sale plan that aims to raise billions for Treasury coffers.

Prime Minister John Key in January unveiled plans to reduce the Government's stake in the airline from 73.4 per cent to 51 per cent, which alongside the sale of minority holdings in Mighty River Power, Meridian, Genesis and Solid Energy is hoped to raise $5 to $7 billion.

Key said the money could be reinvested in other assets and help reduce the country's reliance on debt.

Labour leader Phil Goff accuses the Government of using shonky accounting to justify a policy to hock off valuable assets.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

And the voting public appears nervous - a Herald-DigiPoll survey in May showed 62.6 per cent disapproved of the asset sale policy.

As Rugby World Cup fever cools down and the election heats up, selling off the family silver looks set to become a divisive issue.

Market commentator Arthur Lim said selling down Air New Zealand stock would be a tough ask with investors wary of airlines.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"If we look at the history of airlines in general, but Air New Zealand in particular, it hasn't been a happy investing ground has it?" Lim said. "More airlines have actually gone broke over the decades than new airlines have been set up."

The Crown stepped in to save Air New Zealand in 2001 - investing $1 billion after the company was swamped by losses from its investment in the failed airline Ansett.

"In recent times we've seen airlines in Europe, Canada, Japan all fallen on very hard times and I think a big part of the reason is that the airline business' profitability and operations are impacted by a whole set of external factors beyond the control of the airlines," Lim said.

"Things like fuel price, which is their single biggest operating cost, and in recent decades deregulation or reregulation."

Discover more

Business

National 'ignoring asset proceeds'

04 Nov 12:51 AM
Opinion

Brian Gaynor: NZ badly behind times with age pensions

04 Nov 04:30 PM
Opinion

Fran O'Sullivan: Labour's mixed messages can't contain National's advantage

04 Nov 04:30 PM
Economy

Labour banks on $868m dividend from keeping assets

04 Nov 04:30 PM

The International Air Transport Association last month said that despite stronger-than-expected growth in passenger markets in September the industry was bracing for hard times. It expects profitability to drop from US$6.9 billion ($8.68 billion) this year to US$4.9 billion next year.

Airlines were not considered businesses for the faint-hearted, Lim said.

"I think [mum and dad investors] need to think very carefully on something like Air New Zealand."

The airline industry lent itself to state ownership. "Because you need that longer-term investment horizon, a broader viewpoint, very, very deep pockets to see the airline through its periods of volatility."

Air New Zealand was a well-run airline, he said.

"I think the fact that it is going to be Government-owned gives it additional credibility and strength. But having said all that, I think that the nature of the airline industry would make Air New Zealand a hard sell."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Airlines also lent themselves more to cyclical investors, which the Government should take into consideration, Lim said.

"Certainly now or in the next 12 months I wouldn't expect would be a good time for the Government to sell down to obtain optimum value."

Shares in Air New Zealand have traded above $3 in both 2002 and 2007 - but yesterday closed at $1.05.

Based on that share price the Crown's 73.4 per cent stake could be worth $844.4 million. The dividends it has had from the company since 2001 have totalled $446.3 million.

The sell-down of shares could be like a mini initial public offering, Lim said. "I think if they sell it to institutions it would just be a straight placement but I think from a political point of view the Government would want to get retail investors involved."

Hamilton Hindin Greene director Grant Williamson said the market would be interested in the sell-down.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Out of the [state-owned enterprises] this is probably the easiest because the market has already placed a value on those shares unlike the others that they'll have to set a price for.

"But the Government will have to make it attractive enough for investors to want to buy Air New Zealand shares, so it's probably going to have to be at least at a slight discount to the market price."

The New Zealand stock market needed to grow, Williamson said.

"It certainly hasn't for a number of years but we're certainly starting to see some pretty positive signs.

"Although the floats may not be large at this stage we've had Summerset come on board, Trade Me is lining up as well and then the [SOEs] next year, subject to the Government, then it will be good for the market," he said.

"It is definitely needed, particularly as the superannuation and KiwiSaver accounts grow you do need a bigger market to invest in."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Air New Zealand chairman John Palmer said having the Crown as a majority long-term holder in the airline was beneficial.

"For a relatively small international airline what events of the last probably 20 or 30 years have shown us, and particularly the last 10 or so, is that this is a tough business.

"It's a business where stability is really important, it's a business where in New Zealand's case the value of a national flag carrier is of some considerable value to the country as a whole, and particularly to tourism," Palmer said.

With the Crown as a long-term majority owner the company was not constantly concerned about being subject to a takeover by another shareholder which might have a different perspective on how the business should be run, he said.

"The big plus is that in pursuing a strategy, you're able to pursue that, confident that you've got sufficient time to make sure that you have an opportunity to get that strategy implemented and working."

The difference between the Crown owning 51 per cent or 73 per cent of the company would be barely noticeable at an operational level and the relationship in the way the company dealt with the Crown, which had no directors on the board, as a major shareholder would be unchanged, Palmer said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Chief executive Rob Fyfe addressed the issue in a newsletter to staff this week telling them he valued the Government as a majority shareholder. "If the Government shareholding reduces to somewhere above 50 per cent, it has no material impact on how the business would operate."

Devon Funds Management principal Paul Glass was supportive of the proposed sell-down, which he described as "pretty sensible".

"One of the big issues with the stock at the moment and one of the reasons why a lot of institutions don't follow it is because of the very low liquidity and so any improvement in liquidity would be welcomed by the market."

Air New Zealand fell into a group of stocks known as lobster pots, meaning you could get in but never get out, Glass said.

"Unfortunately I subscribe to that Warren Buffett view on airlines - if you ever think about buying an airline stock just lie down and wait for the feeling to go away."

Devon did not invest in airline stocks and it was too early to say whether the planned Air NZ sell-down would change that position.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"It very much comes down to price and the prospects of the company at the time at which they look to do the placement."

Fyfe was well respected and understanding his tenure at the company would be a factor in the sell-down , Glass said. "Good-quality management is particularly important in those [airline] businesses."

Investors understood that airlines were considered strategic assets for countries and were more comfortable with having a significant government stake than they might be with other more traditional corporate ventures, Glass said.

"Of the various privatisations that they're going to do this is one of the easiest in terms of it already being listed, but possibly one of the more difficult in terms of the risk profile of the asset."

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Personal Finance

Business|personal finance

From corporate life to sexology: How Morgan Penn made a career out of her passion

15 Jun 07:00 PM
Premium
Opinion

The Ex-Files: How to access KiwiSaver funds after separation

15 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
Opinion

Diana Clement: How a mindset shift can unlock financial success

14 Jun 09:00 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Personal Finance

From corporate life to sexology: How Morgan Penn made a career out of her passion

From corporate life to sexology: How Morgan Penn made a career out of her passion

15 Jun 07:00 PM

The Sex.Life co-host offers insights into her big career shift and how she made it work.

Premium
The Ex-Files: How to access KiwiSaver funds after separation

The Ex-Files: How to access KiwiSaver funds after separation

15 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
Diana Clement: How a mindset shift can unlock financial success

Diana Clement: How a mindset shift can unlock financial success

14 Jun 09:00 PM
Premium
Mary Holm: Should I pay off my student loan or invest in an index fund?

Mary Holm: Should I pay off my student loan or invest in an index fund?

13 Jun 05:00 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP