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Home / Business / Personal Finance

Markets to find more heat next year

By Christine Nikiel
29 Dec, 2007 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

A handful of floats and capital raisings, the potential sale of Auckland International Airport and the consultation process for dairy giant Fonterra's plan to list on the NZX should fire up plenty of interest in stocks next year, say market observers.

Meanwhile, the Securities Commission's discussion document highlighting
a loophole in the Takeovers Code should stir up debate about shareholders' rights during takeovers.

While some KiwiSaver cash has already trickled into the hands of fund managers, the effects are not expected to be seen for a few years yet.

However, investors can expect to see further fallout next year from the floundering finance company sector, where a string of collapses forced the spotlight on the industry, prompting calls for mandatory credit ratings.

Paul Glass, executive director of fund manager Brook Asset Management, expects "ongoing carnage" in the finance company sector, predicting all bar "two or three" will "go bust" due to a lack of investor confidence more than imprudent lending.

"I think investors in that sector are in for a torrid time [and] I can't see any circuit-breaker to prevent it at this point," he says.

Investors may look to the market for greater security instead.

Geoff Brown, head of markets at the NZX, is optimistic about listing activity on the exchange next year.

The pipeline of potential floats looks "pretty good" for the first half of the year, he says.

Brown is also optimistic AMP Capital Investors and ING, both of which postponed property floats for their retirement village businesses this year, will try again next year.

The country's oldest retailer, Whitcoulls, is another possibility.

The Australian owner, Pacific Equity partners, has said that its exit strategy included listing on the NZX in early 2008.

Brown says that overall the NZX's performance has been "solid". The NZX-50 is still up for the year despite the US credit crunch that sparked a fall in August and early September.

The NZX is updating its trading system to allow broader range of products with a focus on derivatives and possibly commodities, Brown says.

In the second half of the year, it will introduce carbon credits.

Secondary listings - money raised by existing listed issuers - has been strong this year, he says. About $5 billion has been raised in initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary listings for the debt and equity markets, a record figure helped by the capital raisings of Goodman Property Trust, Infratil and Fletcher Building.

Fonterra will be hoping its farmers will back it after its announcement this year that it plans to list 35 per cent of its shares on the NZX in 2010.

Farmers have two chances to vote, the first expected to be in May.

The co-operative's record payout to farmers of $6.90 per kg of milk solids means the average farmer will receive at least $806,180 this season.

As the New Zealand dollar continued to soar, reaching a post-float high of 81c this year, dairy was virtually the only export sector with anything to smile about.

Forsyth Barr, head of research Rob Mercer, says the dairy industry has been a "saviour" for exporters, and will probably continue to be so for some time.

On the share market, Michael Hill wowed the market and rose 50 per cent over the year, outperforming the most optimistic forecasts.

The most politically charged corporate affair this year was Dubai Aerospace Enterprise's bid to buy Auckland International Airport (AIA).

DAE's $2.6b offer for between 51 and 60 per cent of the company prompted public and political outrage




Caption1: Fonterra, who has overseen a dairy boom.

ColourBar1:

QuoteBox2: I think investors in [the finance company] sector are in for a torrid time [and] I can't see any circuit-breaker to prevent it at this point. PAUL GLASS, executive director of fund manager Brook Asset Management find more heat next year

about ownership of one of the country's key strategic assets. Eventually DAE pulled its bid.

The airport's next suitor, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, raised slightly less public ire, but the AIA board rejected its offer of $3.60 a share for 40 per cent of the company.

Casino operator SkyCity Entertainment had its share of controversy this year. The company's lacklustre performance over recent years forced long-standing chief executive Evan Davies to quit in June, while in September the company was under fire for not highlighting a takeover offer in its profit distribution plan. And how the shareholders fumed.

Brook Asset Management's Paul Glass says a significant stakeholder in the company wants a halt called to the sale process.

An unnamed party has completed due diligence on the country's biggest casino operator, but has yet to make a bid, and the company has appointed a new chief executive, Australian Nigel Morrison.

Of the handful of floats this year, engineering company Opus was the most successful.

The former Ministry of Works raised $47.85m for 21 per cent of the company. Shares soared on debut and have sustained their gains.

After four delays, Pike River Coal's float finally saw the light of day.

Majority owned by New Zealand Oil & Gas, PRC raised $85m to further develop the high grade coking coal mine between Greymouth and Westport. Shares have traded below their issue price of $1 each.

Overall, next year should be one of "prudence" for investors, according to Glass.

"Be sensible," he says. "It's a time to de-risk portfolios.'

Things to watch for in 2008

* The potential sale of SkyCity Entertainment.

* Fonterra's consultation with farmers about its listing plans for 2010.

* The potential sale of Auckland International Airport.

* Further fallout in the finance company sector is expected, with some more collapses anticipated.

* Submissions on the Securities Commission's discussion document on the schemes of arrangement loophole in the Takeovers Code are expected in February.

* NZX to introduce carbon credit trading system.

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