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Renewed doubts about the quality of official data surfaced yesterday as the British Government postponed publication of figures on the housing market and the latest data on retail sales met with incredulity from the industry and some economists.
A spokesman for HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), responsible for
the property market data, explained that statisticians and economists at HMRC thought that "something didn't sit right" in the data when they compared them with previous months' results, hence the decision to withhold the information.
It comes a fortnight after publication of Justice Ministry data on repossessions was postponed for a week "due to a temporary problem with the computer system".
The Liberal Democrats' Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, said: "It seems strange that when figures are bad, they are also often late. If we are to have any confidence in government figures, we must know that they are fully independent."
Separately, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that retail sales in the three months to July rose by 0.7 per cent and that "underlying growth in retail sales volumes remains positive".
The ONS said that, between June and July, the volume of sales jumped by 0.8 per cent, "reflecting rises in all sectors".
Such strong evidence would weaken the case for a cut in interest rates his year, but monthly data are volatile, and the ONS series has become more so recently, with a sharp rise in May's sales data wiped out by a dramatic fall in June.
However, some cast more serious doubts on the figures. Stephen Robertson, director-general of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said: "Few retailers will recognise this positive picture.
"These ONS figures suggest July's total sales values were up 3.8 per cent on a year ago, well above the miserly 1.7 per cent shown by the BRC's figures. It's hard to see what could produce the sales-growth boost ONS is reporting, or its finding that smaller retailers are outperforming larger ones.
"We respect the ONS's process, but this report doesn't seem to reflect the current retail reality."
The ONS maintains that the BRC's estimate "does not effectively reflect sales by small and medium businesses" and "does not include businesses in sectors which have shown relatively strong growth in recent periods. For example, the internet-only retailers of home entertainment and major food discount stores".
Decisions on interest rates, unusually finely balanced now, crucially depend on economic data.
In a speech last month, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charlie Bean, pointed out the difficulties the monetary policy committee has in interpreting them when setting rates.
Bean said: "We don't even have a precise picture of the current state of the economy."
- INDEPENDENT
