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Home / Business / Personal Finance

Frances Cook: Even those benefitting from housing boom are getting nervous

Frances Cook
By Frances Cook
BusinessDesk Investments Editor·NZ Herald·
9 Jun, 2021 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Frances Cook
Opinion by Frances Cook
BusinessDesk Investments Editor
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OPINION:

It's a true sign of the times when even those whose house values are soaring are starting to worry about how this will impact the ability of people to buy their first home

When I talk to them in the course of my work, home owners and real estate agents will admit that while they're enjoying the boost to their back pocket, they worry about how much further prices can rise.

Listen to the Cooking the Books podcast here:

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Some will question how long this can last, whether it means prices will end up crashing downwards again, and what the impact will be on their sons and daughters who haven't bought yet.

This isn't random chats with a few outliers either. The latest NZ Herald-Kantar Poll shows 64 per cent of Kiwis believe house prices need to fall. That's almost two thirds of us.

Not surprising really, when we now have one of the most unaffordable housing markets, relative to income, in the OECD.

But the problem is what would happen if house prices actually fell.

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It would be all of those first home owners who begged, borrowed and stole their way into their first home who would be left high and dry.

Many of them used exceptions to buy with a small deposit, of either 5 or 10 per cent.

Say house prices fall by 25 per cent, which would take us back to January 2020 levels. Yes, I know, it's staggering prices rose that far in such a short time.

But a few did manage to buy in that time, and suddenly these people who used a 5 or 10 per cent deposit are left owing more to the bank than their house is worth – known as "negative equity".

If those people hit tough times and need to sell, the house won't cover their debts. They'll still be on the hook for possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars, with absolutely nothing to show for it.

Remember the Global Financial Crisis in 2008? Yeah. Negative equity on a big scale can trigger that.

This is why you often see Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern cautiously back away from talk of wanting a price fall – instead she'll talk about the need for prices to flatten.

The economic consequences of a house price fall would be very real, and would once again hit those first home buyers the hardest. They don't need yet another hurdle.

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This doesn't mean that I think we should resign ourselves to the current situation. I agree with those feeling a rising sense of disquiet.

I've felt for would-be first home owners for years, and frankly, the underlying disquiet is these days more of an increasing sense of alarm.

So what's the solution?

It's a bigger idea, but still entirely possible.

New Zealand is a low wage economy, and that needs to change. Because the key part in those OECD stats is that our housing market is one of the most expensive relative to income.

That means we have two levers to pull.

Latest figures from Stats NZ show the average wage hovers around $57,000 a year. Being an average, that means plenty more of us are well below that.

It's widely accepted that a key reason people leave in droves for Australia is they can do the same job there, for much more money.

That pressure is only set to get worse. Over the ditch, the Aussie Government has announced it's now pouring money into boosting wages, particularly in health, mental health, and aged care.

If you're a nurse or a teacher, it's already well worth your while to hop on a plane. This change will only increase those pressures on our workforce.

We have to get real about paying people more.

I don't care if it comes from boosting the minimum wage, increasing training support to upskill the workforce, or increasing public sector wages for professions like nurses and teachers. In reality, it would probably be a mix of all of the above.

But if we can delicately hold house prices where they are, while significantly addressing low wages, then we're starting to see a change that's meaningful to people.

Especially those poor first home buyers. And their worried home-owner mums and dads.

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