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Home / Business

NZ reporting season: NZ companies set to reveal Covid-19 impact

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
10 Aug, 2020 05:30 AM4 mins to read

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Contact Energy is due to report its annual result today. Photo / File

Contact Energy is due to report its annual result today. Photo / File

The impact of Covid-19 will only be partially reflected in company results this reporting season but for now, the focus will be on how companies plan to trade their way through a pandemic-driven downturn.

For those with June 30 balance dates, the final quarter will capture the worst effects of the disruption arising from the pandemic, which prompted a full-scale level 4 lockdown from March 25 to April 27.

"These results are going to be noisy because they capture three periods - the strong economic period from January through to late February, then the very weak period during the lockdown, and then the exceptional rebound in activity since the lockdown," Sam Dickie, senior portfolio manager at Fisher Funds, said.

READ MORE:
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"The New Zealand economy is humming right now. It's stronger than most people expected, but looking ahead, most economists expect to see a slowdown," he said.

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"So that makes the outlook statements really, really important rather than the backward looking numbers, which will cover that noisy period."

The US is about halfway through its reporting period, and most S&P500 stocks have so far beaten consensus market forecasts.

Overhanging the local reporting season for the power generators will be planned closure of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter next August.

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Those with southern South Island assets - Meridian Energy and Contact Energy - stand to lose the most if majority owner Rio Tinto goes through with it.

Contact Energy reports its result on Monday and market forecasts are Ebitda of $459m, down from $505m last year.

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"Looking forward, the key judgment is what level the dividend is getting re-based downwards to factor in the Tiwai exit," Jarden said.

"We think 30c, based on our initial analysis," the sharebroker said in a research note. Contact's total dividend came to 39c last year.

High flier a2 Milk - the market's second biggest stock by market capitalisation - is due to report on August 19.

Market expectations are that it will exceed its revenue guidance of $1.7 billion, which compares with $1.3 billion last year.

The dairy marketer said in April that customers were filling their pantries with its infant formula as a result of the pandemic over the first quarter. Market consensus forecasts are for Ebitda of $520m, compared with $413m last year.

The key issue for a2 Milk will be whether the higher sales trend advised in April has continued through to May and June.

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At the other end of the earnings scale are the companies caught up in the eye of the Covid-19 storm, such as Auckland International Airport (AIA), Air New Zealand and cinema software company Vista.

The market will be looking to see how well these companies have managed to contain costs.

Both AIA and Vista have undertaken large capital raisings to shore up their balance sheets more than enough to see them through some of the adverse effects of Covid-19 lockdowns.

"Auckland Airport is not going to be pretty, but everyone knows that," Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners said. "What's more important is what they next two to three years will look like," Lister said.

Shane Solly, senior portfolio manager at Harbour Asset Management, said a number of companies withdrew their earnings guidance in March and April so there is potential for a wider than usual range of outcomes in the current reporting round.

"Companies may announce better-than-expected operating outcomes but remaining cautious about a potential fade in activity as Government support programmes are scheduled to roll off," he said.

"Globally, quarter two corporate earnings results continue to come in stronger than what are proving to be overly cautious expectations.

"There is potential for the New Zealand June reporting season to deliver a similar outcome," he said.

"Companies providing forward earnings guidance may be the exception rather than the norm and dividend announcements will be closely watched with many companies having deferred or cancelled dividends over the March and June quarters."

Investors may also be watching for the impact of Covid-19 on business robustness and potential capital raisings.

The impact of the Victorian Covid-19 lockdown will be a key point for some.

"Likewise, those stocks exposed to China's growth rebound will also be a focus," Solly said.

Annual results coming up this week:

• Today: Contact Energy and Vital Healthcare
• Thursday: Precinct Property and NZX (half year)

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