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Home / Business

Vote 2020: National raids the Covid piggy bank to deliver middle class tax cuts

Hamish Rutherford
By Hamish Rutherford
Wellington Business Editor·NZ Herald·
17 Sep, 2020 10:00 PM3 mins to read

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National Party leader Judith Collins and finance Spokesman Paul Goldsmith speaking in Parliament this week. Photo / Mark Mitchell

National Party leader Judith Collins and finance Spokesman Paul Goldsmith speaking in Parliament this week. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Vote2020

COMMENT:

The National Party's response to grim economic forecasts out this week is a huge - albeit temporary - tax cut for middle- to upper-income earners.

Today the Opposition released its fiscal plan, which shows middle- and upper-income earners being given a chunk of tax relief for 16 months.

Finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith promises lower debt and a return to deficit, but does so by raiding a fund Finance Minister Grant Robertson set aside the yet unknowable needs which Covid-19 will present.

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Through a marked increase in income tax thresholds, anyone earning more than $14,000 a year would see some savings, but the 16-month lift would benefit those on average to high incomes the most.

Anyone earning more than $90,000 a year would get around $4000 in savings over 16 months. A double-income household would get more, with all individuals seeing the saving.

This is a counter-punch to Labour's tax plan, which sees no one but extremely high-income earners paying more; National will deliver noticeable savings for the middle.

In a move aimed at boosting investment, National is also doubling the depreciation rate for investment in plant, equipment and machinery, effectively giving businesses a tax cut for spending.

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The fiscal plan, checked over by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, also sees National pull back from its already vague promise to cut government's net debt as a share of economic output to 30 per cent by 2030. Labour had attacked the plan as amounting to a promise of savage cuts to public services.

Now National's target is 35 per cent by 2034, compared to Treasury's projection in the pre-election fiscal update (PREFU) that debt as a share of gross domestic product would only fall to 48 per cent.

Where Treasury projects no surplus at any point until at least 2035, National's plan sees it promising a return to surplus in 2028, midway through what would be its third term in government.

This week, Robertson described National's fiscal plan as something like the "Bermuda triangle", with promises of more spending and lower debt even though it was seeking less tax revenue.

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The attack is likely to continue; National's plans see it running a smaller deficit than Labour even in the years when it is offering income tax cuts worth $4 billion.

To do this, National is raiding the $14b Covid relief fund, part of which will be used to pay down debt.

It will also run slightly lower operating allowances - around $1.8b a year - than the $2.4b Treasury has assumed in its forecasts.

As such, National is using a similar trick to what Labour did in its 2017 fiscal plan; it is leaving less in the tank to cover unexpected items which inevitably come up during government.

Where Robertson's plan leaves him with around $14b to respond to the impact of Covid-19 as they emerge, National will be required to come up with new, so far unallocated spending should the pandemic demand it.

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