The freeze-up in US business confidence, caused in part by the trade war, could wind up affecting consumer confidence.

These three things are all true: The United States almost certainly isn't in a recession right now. It may well avoid one for the foreseeable future. But the chances that the nation will fall into recession have increased sharply in the last two weeks.

That is the unmistakable message that global investors in the bond market are sending. Longer-term interest rates have plunged since the end of July — a shift that historically tends to predict slower growth, interest rate cuts

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