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Home / Business

Has New Zealand dollar already past its peak for the year?

By Jonathan Underhill
BusinessDesk·
1 Feb, 2018 03:31 AM2 mins to read

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Some traders say the NZ dollar may have seen its highs for the year against the US dollar.

Some traders say the NZ dollar may have seen its highs for the year against the US dollar.

The New Zealand dollar fell, having climbed above US74c overnight, with some traders saying it may have seen its highs for the year because US rate hikes will increasingly come into focus.

The kiwi fell to US73.66c at 5pm from as high as US74.19c overnight, and down from US73.77c yesterday. The trade-weighted index declined to 74.96 from 75.09 yesterday.

See live rates for the NZ-US $ below. Click for more information:

​

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The kiwi gave up earlier gains after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen emphasised the Fed's intention to raise interest rates this year.

Jerome Powell will take over from Yellen as the chair from Feb. 3 and be sworn in two days later.

The greenback has been out of favour despite the prospect of higher US interest rates, but traders expect the dollar will attract buyers when rate differentials start favouring the US.

"We're picking that's the high for the year" for the kiwi, said Grant Bodle, senior FX dealer at HiFX. "The Fed is likely to hike four times this year. Fed hikes mean US dollar strength."

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Bodle says in 2018 the kiwi may trade in a similar range to 2017 against the greenback "but slightly skewed to the downside."

HiFX sees a range of US64c to US65c at the low end up to around US74c at the top, compared to 2017's US66c to US74c range.

The Federal Open Market Committee was unanimous in keeping the federal funds rate in a range of 1.25 per cent to 1.5 per cent, with Yellen saying the central bank "expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate".

The local currency rose to 91.48 Australian cents from 91.36 cents yesterday. Both countries have now posted weaker-than-expected inflation data.

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The kiwi fell to 4.6320 Chinese yuan from 4.6614 yuan yesterday and traded at 80.53 yen from 80.33 yen. It fell to 59.28 euro cents, reversing earlier gains, from 59.37 cents yesterday and fell to 51.86p from 52.03p.

New Zealand's two-year swap rate rose 1 basis point to 2.16 per cent, while 10-year swaps rose 1 basis point to 3.24 per cent.

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