Lingering uncertainty about global growth and manufacturing is tipped to fuel a soft start to Australian trade when the market reopens today.
A "Santa Claus" rally which supported the local market in the lead-up to Christmas will provide some tailwind into the new year, but nerves will drive a volatile week, AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver said yesterday.
Oliver said the US market cooled significantly on New Year's Eve, with the Dow and S&P both falling by about 1 per cent.
He doesn't expect Australia to experience the same rate of decline, but suspects the market will open around 40 points down on Monday.
Oliver said concerns about whether the US Federal Reserve will lift interest rates and fears about sluggish Chinese and American manufacturing figures dominated the final weeks of global trade in 2015.
"I think they'll dominate early in the new year as well," he said.
• New Zealand's sharemarket is closed for a public holiday today.