“Overall, the trend in 2024 was one of decline with ads down 22% compared to December 2023,” Seek country manager Rob Clark said.
“Some industries ended the year with more opportunities, including Banking & Financial Services and Insurance & Superannuation, thanks to growth spurts at the end of the year.
“Hiring and applications do tend to pick up in the early months of a new year, as hirers and candidates start thinking about the future – so, January and February will be ones to watch.”
Service sector doldrums
Looking at the PSI, BNZ senior economist Doug Steel noted when comparing across key trading partners, New Zealand had the only PSI in contraction.
“Our neighbour Australia is the closest comparison, but their equivalent PSI is sitting more comfortably at 50.8,” Steel said.
The latest out-turn was a reality check after a stronger reading in November and “a reminder of soft activity underfoot”, he said.
The monthly decrease was mostly driven by the supply side, as the PSI supplier deliveries index and PSI stocks/inventories index both fell back below 50.
Providing some hope, the three-month moving average for the PSI has been steadily moving towards break-even over the past five months, he said.
Employment trends
The Seek NZ Employment Report showed that, after rising in November, the major urban regions all saw job ads decline, with Canterbury down by 5%, Auckland down 4% and Wellington down by 3%.
Conversely, Waikato and Otago, which both recorded falling ad volumes in November, rose 2% and 5% respectively.
Of the larger regions, Otago had been impacted the least by job ad decline in 2024, falling just 8%, compared to 25% in Auckland and 23% in Wellington and Canterbury respectively, Clark said.
While the majority of industries recorded a decline in job ads in December, there was rising demand among the largest hirers: trades and services (3%), manufacturing, transport and logistics (5%) and information and communication technology (6%).
Healthcare and medical roles recorded a 6% decline, and are now 15% lower (quarter on quarter), while retail and consumer products roles fell 13%.
Most industries have slowed their hiring since December 2023, with a few exceptions including banking and financial services (up 29%), mining, resources and energy (up 12%) and insurance and superannuation (up 12%), among others.
The industries that attracted the largest rise in applications per job ad year on year were advertising, arts & media (71%), retail and consumer products (64%), administration & office support (61%) and construction (59%).
Uncertain recovery
BNZ’s Steel noted that the services contraction – combined with the Manufacturing Index on the Composite Index (PCI) suggested some downside risk to near-term growth forecasts.
Historical revisions showed GDP was slightly better over 2023 and early 2024 than previously assumed, he said.
However, they also showed a faster deterioration in Q2 and Q3 2024 than expected.
The updated data better matched the weakness observed in the PCI across the middle of 2024, he said.
“Economic turning points are messy. While some indicators (eg business confidence) are suggesting a turnaround, others like the PCI suggest that it could take some time for it to feel like a recovery.”
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
