Mood of the Boardroom: A future Prime Minister in waiting?

Nicola Willis. Photo / Supplied

Nicola Willis has been tipped as a National Prime Minister in waiting by a number of CEO respondents to the Herald survey.

Their reflections on Willis' leadership potential were unprompted.

Said the CEO of a major professional firm, "in the last few months many people have commented on how Nicola is impressive across a range of forums and audiences — a future leader and PM."

"Potentially, be a more credible leader of the National Party," said a consulting firm chair.

"A credible LTOR, in my view," said another.

In the 2022 Mood of the Boardroom survey, 73 per cent of respondents agreed Willis has presented herself as a credible future Minister of Finance. Some 21 per cent were unsure; just 6 per cent said no.

She has held the shadow finance portfolio since March 15, and swiftly capitalised on the "cost of living crisis". Willis also acknowledged having reached out to former National finance ministers as mentors.

"She has come to grips with the portfolio quickly and has an impressive level of gravitas and credibility around it already," said a finance sector chief.

"Nicola will need a good support team around her — great that Bill English is helping her," said a well-placed female director. "Nicola may need to ready herself to be PM — she has the ability to win support from more New Zealanders."

A technology company CEO said: "Good start. But she has the potential 100 per cent. Chris (Luxon) needs to hero her more or stand aside more."

But a company chair cautioned, "early days. Never had a proper commercial role so hard to know if she has the experience. Balancing that, she is diligent and a hard worker."

Willis's growing credibility is a big turnaround from the performances of her immediate predecessors: former investment banker Andrew Bayly and former Cabinet Minister Paul Goldsmith. Bayly, awarded the role of National's shadow treasurer by former leader Judith Collins following the 2020 election, failed to cement himself with nearly half — 47 per cent — of respondents in 2021 unsure as to his potential chops as finance minister; 35 per cent said no, and just 18 per cent yes. In the 2020 survey, 53 per cent of respondents said Goldsmith was a credible future finance minister; 22 per cent said no.

What distinguishes Willis from them are two factors: First, she has the good fortune to be shadowing Finance Minister Grant Robertson while Labour's political fortunes are on the wane and the economy is under strong pressure. Second, she had already served a political apprenticeship and is able to mount cut-through on issues.

Said Vector chair, Jonathan Mason, "Nicola has the combination of business and government background that makes her a credible spokesperson for the business."

"She is articulate," said Precinct Properties' Craig Stobo. Others noted she "works hard and is smart and very credible," "understands business, tax and finance", and, is "doing well with the opportunities presented to her" — several singling out how she capitalised on the Labour's faux pax of putting GST on KiwiSaver fees.

Willis has had a lengthy career in politics. On graduation, she became a research and policy advisor for Sir Bill English in Opposition before going on to become a senior advisor to Prime Minister Sir John Key in 2008.

In 2012, she joined Fonterra, taking on senior management roles, as well as serving on the board of Export NZ. She later stood unsuccessfully for National in Wellington Central, but came into Parliament on the list in March 2018.

Willis was part of a liberal faction that rolled Simon Bridges to install Todd Muller as a leader. Muller was replaced by Collins who promoted Willis to 13th place.

She became deputy leader to Luxon on November 30, 2021. Luxon appointed Willis as finance spokesperson after Bridges announced his retirement this year. Willis has recently been making a series of boardroom presentations and speeches to the business community.

CEOs were asked to rate how well she has connected with business. They scored her at 4.24/5 on a scale where 1 equals not impressive and 5 equals very impressive. Notably, 17 per cent rated her at 5/5 with a further 39 per cent at 4/5 and 23 per cent at 3/5; 18 per cent were unsure.

"At least they are getting out into the businesses to see how business lost confidence in the lockdown (in Auckland)," said a real estate boss.

But there were also signals Willis has to be careful to follow through.

Said Mainfreight CEO Don Braid: "We got a visit three months ago. Nothing post the meeting. It felt like a once-over!"

Concluded an aviation CEO: "She is critical to National, especially if Luxon doesn't win the next election."