The ballot boxes are still
open, but I reckon I can safely say, well done. It's an honour and a privilege to be elected to represent the people. But bear in mind that it will change the trajectory of your life. You're about to become the property of your Tauranga constituents and the National Party.
It will be important to keep a sense of proportion if you do secure an enormous share of the vote tomorrow.
I'm sure you've heard the old maxim, "send a message to Wellington". It's not unusual in byelections for opposition parties to win thumping victories, as disgruntled voters give a two-fingered salute to the Beehive, knowing the result usually won't disturb Parliament's balance of power.
Labour's Michael Wood got 66 per cent of the votes when he won the Mt Roskill byelection in 2017. Jacinda Ardern went even better, winning Mt Albert in a 2017 byelection with a whopping 77 per cent share — mind you, your party bailed from that contest to spare itself a humiliating defeat.
In 2014 National, then in Government of course, retained the Northland seat with a 9000 majority, but famously lost it in a byelection six months later to Winston Peters, who got 54 per cent of the vote and a majority of 4000.
You might have heard the usual tosh about the stakes being high in tomorrow's byelection, and that it'll give a glimpse of what might happen next year in the general election.
I wouldn't take too much notice of that. Byelections have their own dynamic, and an anti-Government swing can normally be taken as read.
We see the same thing in the US mid-term elections. Fickle voters believe that whoever is in control of Congress and the White House are never doing enough. So invariably a swag of people lose their House or Senate seats.
When you get to Parliament you'll no doubt attract some curious attention, but that will soon abate and you can settle down to life as a garden-variety MP, attending to your House and select committee duties.
Someone will no doubt tell you how Keith Holyoake counselled first-termers to shut up and breathe through their nose. It's useful advice, aimed at keeping you out of harm's way.
Stepping into the National caucus room will be a comforting experience for you. You will see that, for the most part, it's wall-to-wall Pākehā males of your generation. In other words, people just like you. National is the least diverse party in Parliament, but that is the party's problem, not yours.
I don't mean to sound uncharitable, but your arrival will only reinforce the deadening sameness of its caucus.
Then sometime in the coming weeks, you'll get to make your maiden speech.
This will be an important milestone, providing you with an opportunity to tell Parliament something about yourself, your values and where you're from. I understand you've lived in Tauranga for only about 18 months, but I'm sure that won't deter you from waxing lyrical about the city's blessings.
Maiden speeches are always worthy. But some are so inspiring that even the other side sit up and take notice. No pressure, Sam.
When David Lange entered Parliament via a byelection in 1977, he so impressed Parliament in his maiden speech that a National MP called out across the House to then-Labour leader Bill Rowling: "Watch out Bill, he's breathing down your neck". It was a prescient interjection.
Finally, I must admit to having taken only a passing interest in the policy debates during the Tauranga campaign.
But one idea that you were touting certainly grabbed my attention. It was in relation to managing the gang problem.
Look Sam, I understand why there is anxiety in the community about the gangs, what with drive-by shootings and the unease that is created when patched gang members gather in public places.
The National Party has reacted with promises to ban the wearing of gang insignia in public, to give police the power to stop gang members gathering in public — or even "associating" on social media. Goodness knows how the latter idea would be enforced without some Beijing-style surveillance regime.
It sounds like a return to the draconian and discredited anti-gang policies of less enlightened times.
Then there was your gob-smacking contribution, which some suspect the party's police spokesman Mark Mitchell put you up to.
You're promoting a local by-law to stop gang members "cruising" along certain streets, so the good folk of Tauranga can get about the city without feeling intimidated.
Again, the question of enforcement is left hanging. Would it require permanent police checkpoints on the streets in question?
How to deal with the gang problem is going to require a leap in imagination, not a great leap backwards.
Yours is a daft idea but sadly it sits well with National's thinking about where gang control policy needs to go — thinking that is all about gestures and threats.
So it looks like you'll fit into the National caucus splendidly.
And not just because you're another Pākehā guy in a business suit.
- Mike Munro is a former chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern and was chief press secretary for Helen Clark.
