OPINION:
Momentum in politics is an elusive sort of concept. Politicos agree it’s powerful, but they often quibble over its definition, and who’s got it at any particular point in time.
Of course, it can shift in the blink of an eye. That much has been evident since the beginning of the year.
If you subscribe to the view that political momentum is when one party makes all the running and keeps its opponents on the back foot, then right now the Labour Government has it, in bucketloads.
This year has seen Labour, under new management, burst out of the starting gates and leave National in a blinking, bewildered state of inertia. It is hard to recall the last time there was such a dominating start to an election year by a major political party.
When Jacinda Ardern stood behind a phalanx of media microphones at Napier 16 days ago and fired the first shots of the political year, nobody could have foreseen the whirlwind of events that would unfold.
Her announcement that she was stepping down as Prime Minister had the pundits, for the most part, falling into one of two camps.
In one they had Labour doomed. How could the party possibly withstand the loss of the charismatic Ardern, the country’s preferred PM throughout her Government’s tenure and Labour’s principal electoral weapon?
So gladdened were National MPs that they apparently back-slapped and fist-pumped when the news of Ardern’s impending exit reached their summer caucus.
In the other camp the pundits were more circumspect, seeing her departure as an opportunity for Labour to present a fresh face and to reset, and so move on from the polarising effect that the Ardern-led Government had begun to have in recent times. Maybe this was the break that Labour needed, they argued.
We know now that it’s the latter view that has prevailed — with bells on.
Three days after Ardern’s bombshell, Labour had completed a leadership change, impressive for its speed and decisiveness, and ever since it has had that precious thing — momentum. Labour is up and moving and National is wondering how it can stop them.
When a party has momentum it sets the agenda and becomes the story. And Labour and Chris Hipkins have been the story from the time Hipkins was endorsed by his caucus colleagues and, the following day, whisked off to Government House to be sworn in as Prime Minister.
Hipkins has indicated that there will be a different emphasis on his watch. Some of the Government’s plans will be reined in. The “bread and butter” issue of inflation will be the Number One priority, as part of a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders at present.
In setting out his priorities, the newly minted PM not only immediately connected with a public deeply troubled by rising prices, but he also raided National’s chest. In 2022 National had clawed its way back into contention on the back of the cost-of-living crisis, but Hipkins was seemingly able to step in and snaffle the issue for himself. He’s now the anti-inflation warrior.
The benefits of incumbency are considerable and what Hipkins and his Government have been doing in the past fortnight has illustrated that.
Hipkins’ first step as PM was to fly north and meet Auckland businesspeople, who are struggling with worker shortages, rising prices and infrastructure woes. He left behind a favourable impression with his openness to business-friendly policy changes, and even Auckland Chamber boss Simon Bridges, Chris Luxon’s predecessor-twice-removed, was complimentary afterwards.
Soon after came the rainstorms that have taken lives and caused catastrophic damage in Auckland and surrounding regions. The PM returned to Auckland and was quick to offer the sodden city the support it urgently needs, pledging that his Government will partner with Auckland on the long road to recovery.
After unveiling his Cabinet lineup, another event that kept opponents in the shadows, Hipkins and co continued to hog the headlines.
The fuel tax cut — which pares 25 cents off a litre of petrol — that was supposed to be dumped at the end of March will now continue until June 30. So too will half-price bus and train fares. With the election looming, a further stay of execution for these measures can be expected beyond mid-year, surely.
Last Monday’s polls quickly became another Chris Hipkins story: Hipkins has changed the game, Hipkins-led Labour back in front, Hipkins outpoints Luxon in preferred PM stakes, Hipkins deemed more trustworthy than Luxon.
The party numbers in the 1News-Kantar and Newshub polls, when averaged out, put Labour’s lead over National at 38-37, a sharp turnaround from the end of last year when National had opened an advantage of between five and seven percentage points.
The preferred Prime Minister ratings would also have delighted Labour and disquieted National. For someone whom, just weeks ago, had never been talked about as a future PM (Grant Robertson was always touted as Ardern’s likely successor) to be suddenly topping the preferred PM ratings was remarkable.
What’s helping Hipkins to sustain his impetus is that National, deprived of oxygen, has gone quiet. Curiously, it hasn’t really tried anything to wrest back the initiative, having been reduced to giving soundbites from the sidelines.
When Luxon looked for cracks in the Government’s Auckland response, it had a whiff of desperation.
Lashing out at the Auckland school closure decision when he had little idea of how schools or school bus routes had been hit by floodwaters, or how the homes of teachers and staff were affected, was ill-judged.
There’s the rub when the other side has momentum. There’s a risk you’ll start to flail about and make things worse for yourself.
- Mike Munro is a former chief of staff for Jacinda Ardern and was chief press secretary for Helen Clark.
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