Migration gain falls to an 11-year (non-Covid) low, as Kiwis continue to depart

The annual net migration rate has fallen to 21,300, new Stats NZ data show.

Outside of the Covid era, when borders were closed, this is the lowest level of migration gain since January 2014.

It marks a huge shift from the most recent peak.

The year ended October 2023 saw a record net migration gain of 135,500.

With net migration inflows still positive, the risk of seeing a net outflow over 2025 remained low, said ASB senior economist Mark Smith

“However, the cooling in net immigration inflows from late 2023 peaks represents another factor contributing to the sluggish pace of consumer demand and the housing market of late,” he said.

“We expect annual net migration inflows to strengthen over 2026 as the domestic upswing gains momentum, but a long road lies ahead.”

For the year to April 2025, migrant arrivals were 145,000, down 27%.

Migrant departures were up 15% to 123,700.

The exodus of Kiwis has started to level off, however.

For New Zealand citizens, the net migration loss of 45,600 in the April 2025 year compared with a net migration loss of 45,900 in the April 2024 year.

However, the annual level of Kiwi departures remains near record levels at 70,600.

That level peaked in February at 70,976.

A breakdown of the numbers done by Stats NZ last month showed that those aged 18 to 30 years accounted for about 40% of Kiwi departures.

Citizens of New Zealand were the largest group for departures. The next-largest groups were citizens of China (7600), India (5400) and the United Kingdom (4700).

The bulk of departing Kiwis typically leave for Australia.

In the September 2024 year, 59% of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

There was a net migration loss of 31,200 people to Australia in the year ended September 2024 (the latest available figures).

This was made up of 16,600 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 47,800 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia, Stats NZ said.

This averaged about 30,000 a year from 2004 to 2013, and 3000 a year from 2014 to 2019.

Overall, New Zealand citizens also represented the largest group of long-term arrivals at 24,900. The next-largest groups were citizens of India (22,600), China (18,900) and the Philippines (11,700).

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.