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Home / Business / Markets / Stock takes

NZ investors hit record $128b in US shares and bonds - Stock Takes

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
5 Jun, 2025 09:00 PM6 mins to read

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Herald NOW: Business with 2degrees: 6 June. Video / Herald NOW

Wall St punters

The volume of money invested by Kiwis on Wall Street has reached a record high, according to new data from the US Treasury.

The figures show New Zealanders’ ownership of US securities, including shares and bonds hit US$67.1 billion ($128b ) in March 2025 – the highest monthly total on record, Michael McCarthy, Australia and New Zealand CEO of share-trading platform moomoo, says.

Shares in listed companies make up the largest investment volume, with US$51.3b in US stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – a 152% increase over the same month in 2020.

The growth in equity investment is part of a broader trend with New Zealand’s holdings in US government bonds rising 75% to US$11.2b over the same period, while corporate bond holdings climbed 33% to US$3.6b.

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McCarthy said the data highlights the growing scale of international reach and diversification by Kiwi investors.

He says New Zealand’s low interest rate environment in recent years has pushed investors to seek higher yields abroad, especially in US equities and tech-heavy indices, which have delivered strong returns post-Covid.

McCarthy says fintech platforms are “democratising” entry into international markets for younger investors, who have a particular interest in US tech stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs).

“We have seen that the relatively strong Kiwi dollar in the earlier post-pandemic period made US investments more attractive and affordable for Kiwi investors.

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“There was an awareness that exposure to US assets could provide a hedge against domestic inflation and NZ dollar depreciation, especially relevant given recent macroeconomic volatility.

“We have also seen large institutional investors, such as the NZ Super Fund and KiwiSaver providers, steadily increase their exposure to global equities to diversify risk and chase international growth,” he says.

Founded in Silicon Valley in 2018, moomoo has grown to over 25 million users in the US, Singapore, Australia, Japan, Canada, Hong Kong and Malaysia.

McCarthy says growing local demand from retail investors has seen them launch its trading platform in NZ this week, to lower barriers to entry by offering the lowest fees in the local market for unlimited US trades as well as the widest range of US stocks and ETFs.

Back in favour

Morningstar is taking an alternative view of two out-of-favour Kiwi stocks.

The investment group has put Auckland International Airport (AIA) and Spark New Zealand on its list of high-quality companies currently trading at discounts to its assessment of fair value.

On AIA, Morningstar said a “massive” capital expenditure bill loomed for the company.

“Aeronautical charges are also set to drop from fiscal 2026, given a regulatory decision.

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“However, we believe the scale of the capital investment plan is reasonable, supported by the airport’s balance sheet.

“The plan is in line with other global airports and has appropriate cost rigour.

“We expect AIA to generate a reasonable return on capital investment, given that proposed airport charges are reasonable relative to other airports, globally and domestically.“

In March, the Commerce Commission published its final report on Auckland Airport’s 2022 – 2027 price-setting event, concluding the airport’s forecast revenue was excessive and its targeted returns were unreasonably high.

AIA shares have been flat, last trading at $7.56 after falling 3% over the past 12 months.

Spark undervalued?

On Spark, Morningstar said challenging economic conditions combined with structural headwinds facing the mobile and IT units from austere government and enterprise customers have exposed Spark NZ’s “bloated” cost base.

“Earnings are cyclically weak but should recover as New Zealand’s economy recovers.

“Further, a reinvigorated focus on costs is likely, with decent cost-out targets.

“On our earnings and dividends forecasts, we think the balance sheet will stay reasonable and could improve with asset sales.

“None of this is reflected in the share price, nor Spark’s ‘moaty’ mobile business.”

Spark shares currently trade around $2.22, having lost 46.8% over the past 12 months.

Port pricing charges up

Port of Tauranga’s (POT) recently announced tariff schedule for 2026 bodes well for continued pricing momentum, brokers Forsyth Barr said.

“We expect unit-container revenue to increase by 8% in 2026 [and at a similar rate compounded over FY24–FY28].

“POT’s key lever this time is a doubling of its infrastructure levy, with the suggestion that this will be further reviewed for 2027.”

In addition, it is introducing a modest bulk (Mount Maunganui wharves) truck-access charge.

“These pricing initiatives are supportive of robust near-term earnings growth; our estimates imply 20% net profit after tax growth in 2025 and +15% in 2026.”

Forsyth Barr, noting the Port of Auckland’s sharp price increase for trucks offloading at the port, said the port pricing theme is set to continue.

“The broader industry-pricing theme is in full swing and supportive of POT’s firming stance.

“Port of Auckland’s [POAL] already well-publicised landside-port-access pricing initiatives have been further boosted by its recent material uplift in the forward path for its peak pricing.

“We expect this will open up a sizeable gap between its container-unit revenue and that of POT over the next few years, thereby providing an improved competitive position for the latter.

“Both ports have sufficient motivation to maintain price momentum given their current sub-WACC [weighted average cost of capital] returns and ongoing infrastructure investments.”

Market gained 4.3% in May

The S&P/NZX50 Gross Index returned 4.3% in May 2025, with the market up +8% mid-month, before selling off.

The benchmark index’s year-to-date return is currently down 5.3%.

“This month’s performance was equally driven by large caps [+4.4%] and mid caps [+4.2%], headlined by Fisher and Paykel Healthcare [+125bp] and Mainfreight [+104bp],” Forsyth Barr said.

“Thematically, the underlying safe haven nature of the market proved to be a boon, with defensive yield [+5.7%] outperforming, and structural growth [+3.6%] underperforming [based on average returns],” the broker said.

Earnings downgrade

New Zealand King Salmon (NZK) has revised its 2026 earnings guidance down 54% at the mid-point - after a challenging summer.

NZK announced this week that it expects full year 2026 harvest volumes of 5200 tonnes to 5400 tonnes (down 13% from the previous mid-point) and pro-forma earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) down to a range of $6m to $12m from previously issued guidance of $15m to $24m (down 54% from previous mid-point).

“The downgrade comes as a result of slower fish growth, which is particularly disappointing given it follows a period of higher mortalities through the summer months and serves as another reminder of the agri risk that exists within the business,” Jarden said in a research note.

NZK expects to recover towards normal harvest tonnage and volumes from September.

“We lower our FY26/FY27 pro-forma ebitda forecasts by 64% and 11% respectively with no long-run changes,” Jarden said.

Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets and the primary sector. He joined the Herald in 2011.

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