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Home / Business / Markets / Shares

Stock Takes: Not purple patch

Tamsyn Parker
By Tamsyn Parker
Business Editor·NZ Herald·
6 Feb, 2014 08:30 PM5 mins to read

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Analysts put faith in Di Humphries and her team at Pumpkin Patch. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Analysts put faith in Di Humphries and her team at Pumpkin Patch. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Tamsyn Parker
Opinion by Tamsyn Parker
Tamsyn Parker has been Business Editor at the New Zealand Herald since April 2023. She was previously the Personal Finance Editor and has been with the Herald since 2007.
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Off to oz

Fletcher Building is to hold its half-year results presentation in Australia for the first time this reporting season.

New Zealand's largest listed company will present its financials in person to analysts in Sydney on February 20.

A Fletcher spokesman said the decision to go to Oz was not a reflection of any significant change in holdings in the company.

"Rather, it reflects the company's significant operations in Australia and the large investor community there. About two-thirds of the broker analysts that cover Fletcher Building are Sydney-based."

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The spokesman said it may look to make results announcements from Australia from time to time but its full-year result would be presented from Auckland in August.

Kiwi-owned

While Fletcher has strong analyst coverage out of Australia its shareholder base remains firmly New Zealand-centric.

According to its annual report 76.72 per cent of shareholders were New Zealand-based compared to 21.95 per cent coming from Australia as of last July 31.

Mark Lister, head of wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners, said the move was a sign of the times for Fletcher.

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"The New Zealand portion of its operations is less than it has been in the past. I still think of them very much as a New Zealand company, they have pretty healthy New Zealand ownership."

But he said it was important for the company to spread itself around to target different groups.

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"I don't take any great offence to it. But sure there will be some that take it in a negative way."

Fletcher is expected to produce a good result this season despite challenges around the Kiwi/Aussie currency cross rate.

Its shares closed on $8.98 on Wednesday.

Not purple patch

Macquarie has slashed its full year net profit forecast for Pumpkin Patch but still rates the company an outperform.

In a note released this week Macquarie said its 57.9 per cent drop in net profit was due to a raft of other retailers giving updates on the tough trading conditions in New Zealand.

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Hallenstein Glasson recently warned it was likely to have a 39 per cent drop in its half-year profits for the six months ending February 1.

Pumpkin Patch has yet to provide any trading update to the market for Christmas but Macquarie said the broader market conditions referred to by other retailers (particularly Hallenstein Glasson) was likely to have impacted Pumpkin Patch.

" ... coupled with the supply chain challenges incurred in 1Q14 and further unfavourable currency movements impacting the translation of A$ earnings, are expected to underpin a 1H14 net profit after tax below our previous forecast."

Macquarie also dropped its 12- month target price from $1.25 to $1.

The broking firm noted that an investment in Pumpkin Patch currently required "something of a leap in faith".

"That said, there are clear signs that the Pumpkin Patch product offer has improved significantly, and once chief executive Di Humphries finalises the strategy we have high conviction in her [and her teams'] ability to execute."

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The children's clothing retailer is due to release its half- year result in mid-March. Its shares closed on 65c on Wednesday.

Fishy business

Sharemarket minnow SeaDragon has had a volatile run on the markets of late but research firm Edison believes the company is looking less risky after raising capital and completing the sale of its shares in Snakk Media.

Last month SeaDragon, which produces specialist fish oils for dietary supplements, raised $4.1 million in a share purchase plan following on from a $2 million placement.

It also completed the sale of its Snakk shares for $2.5 million and has signed contracts for the construction of a refined fish oil plant after an almost two-year delay.

"SeaDragon's risk profile is reducing with the completion of the current capital-raising programme, certainty around the development of the refined fish oil plant and an improving outlook for supplies of squalene."

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Edison has a valuation of 2.7c a share on the company but said that was contingent on the successful completion of the plan and growth in sales of refined fish oils.

"Compared to its peer group SeaDragon looks expensive, although it is expected to have higher short-term earnings momentum compared to its peers."

SeaDragon shares have traded in a range between 1.6c and 4.3c over the past year. On Wednesday they closed on 2c.

Flat forecast

Morningstar has forecast a flat result for Contact Energy with net profits in line with its 2013 financial year.

Contact is being favoured by a number of broking firms as the power company most likely to weather the election and a possible change in government.

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But Morningstar analyst Nachi Moghe isn't expecting any growth in the bottom line for 2014.

"Our forecasts assume an uptick in the electricity division's earnings before interest and tax, offset to some extent by higher interest and depreciation costs due to the commissioning of the Ti Mihi geothermal power plant.

"Overall the electricity business is tracking in line with our expectations, with margin pressure in the retail business being more than compensated by lower production costs.

"We expect production costs to decline further once Ti Mihi is fully operational in the second half, as the plant will displace more expensive thermal generation. Retail prices continue to remain competitive, which is a reflection of an oversupplied market and the Government's promotional campaign encouraging consumers to switch suppliers."

Moghe forecasts a net profit of $202 million for 2014 and $240 million for 2015 and maintains a hold recommendation on the stock. Shares in Contact closed on $5.25 on Wednesday.

Mint expands again

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After boosting its investment management team at the end of last year boutique fund manager Mint has hired marketing man Thom Bentley who will help sell the firm's funds to financial advisers, institutional and high net worth investors.

Bentley has 26 years' experience and has held senior institutional marketing positions with several global asset management firms as well as NZ experience as managing director of Remarkable Capital.

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