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Home / Business / Markets / Shares

Stock Takes: BurgerFuel pulls out of Iraq on Isis threat

NZ Herald
23 Oct, 2014 09:13 PM6 mins to read

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BurgerFuel's outlet in the Dubai Mall is one of 63 worldwide.

BurgerFuel's outlet in the Dubai Mall is one of 63 worldwide.

Opinion by

Burger chain pulls plug on expansion plans for Iraq and Libya but shares still rising

BurgerFuel has pulled out of Iraq as a result of the increasing threat of the Islamic State jihadist group in that country.

The Auckland-based company previously had a franchise-run store in Sulaymaniyah, in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, near the areas held by the Islamic State, which has taken control of swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria this year.

However, the company's Iraqi franchise partners were in the process of relocating the Sulaymaniyah store to Baghdad when the situation with the Islamic State worsened and the firm decided to cease all activity in that country until things improve.

BurgerFuel was talking about expansion in Iraq and Libya - where the political situation has also deteriorated during 2014 - earlier this year. But an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment has put the breaks on those plans.

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"We only had one low volume store [in Iraq], so this is not material to our position," chief executive Josef Roberts told shareholders at the firm's annual meeting last month. "It's unfortunate that Iraq has slipped back into this situation as it was a country with enormous potential, but as we can longer enter that country for safety reasons, its best we cease activity there, which we have now done."

He said the situation in Libya was similar to Iraq.

"We haven't proceeded to enter that country and with recent bombings there - again, it's off the radar for future activity and like Iraq this will have little effect on our earnings."

The company's main Middle Eastern markets, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are stable. And BurgerFuel's major growth focus at present is its US expansion, which will utilise its partnership with Franchise Brands, an investment vehicle set up by Subway founders Fred DeLuca and Peter Buck.

The company this week said it would release details on the timing of its US market entry "soon".

Shares gain on market updates

BurgerFuel shares have rallied sharply following a slew of positive market updates from the NZAX-listed company.

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The Auckland-based firm's stock has gained a whopping 24.5 per cent since the start of last month. Shares closed at $3.05 last night, near the $3.10 record close it hit in January after the announcement of a partnership with the founders of the Subway sandwich chain.

Since early September the company has given an update, at its annual meeting, on progress around its move into the United States and announced the opening of stores in Sydney, Egypt and Kuwait.

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During that period BurgerFuel has also revealed plans to grow its company-owned store division through buying back franchise-run outlets and its intention to open five more Australian sites in Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

The Aussie push is particularly significant. BurgerFuel says it's anticipating opening all five of the new, franchise-owned stores before March 31 next year. That's the kind of growth - and then some - the firm will need to pull off in order to hit its target of opening 1000 new stores over the next eight years.

The company, founded in 1995, has 63 stores operating in New Zealand, Australia and the Middle East.

Winning formula

French food giant Danone's stock gained ground last week after the company's third quarter sales update showed a big recovery in its infant formula unit, which was hard-hit in the same period of last year by Fonterra's botulism false alarm.

Sales in Paris-based Danone's Early Life Nutrition division rose 19.2 per cent in the three months to September 30.

"This excellent performance was buoyed by very favourable bases for comparison across all eight Asian markets affected by Fonterra's false alert starting in August 2013, with sales in most of these markets now back to pre-crisis levels," the company says.

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Danone received baby milk base powder containing the whey protein wrongly suspected of being contaminated by a botulism-causing bacterium.

As a result, the firm - which is seeking compensation from Fonterra - was forced to recall products across eight markets, including New Zealand and China.

Danone stock rose more than 1 per cent last week following the quarterly update to close at 50.91 on Friday. Shares closed at 50.60 yesterday.

Cash mountain

Time will tell whether the dismantling of China's Great Wall of capital controls will result in a mountain of Chinese cash flowing into global stock markets, including the NZX.

The People's Bank of China, which wants to promote international use of the yuan currency, this month announced a plan that will allow Chinese nationals to invest in overseas property and equities through a Qualified Domestic Retail Investor Scheme.

No timing was provided for the scheme's launch, nor any indication given of its size, but ANZ chief China economist Li Gang Liu says it's likely to be phased in later this year and ramped up in 2015.

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China's US$22 trillion ($28 trillion) in private wealth, which has been forecast by Boston Consulting Group to swell to US$40 trillion by 2018, could have a big affect on global equities markets following the liberalisation of capital controls.

"If China does liberalise, few other events over the next decade are likely to have more impact on the shape of the global financial system," wrote the Bank of England's John Hooley in a recent report.

"China's size means that any substantial loosening of its capital controls will matter for the rest of the world.

"If the process is successful, it could lead to more balanced and sustainable growth in China and rebalance global demand."

Property appetite

New Zealand is a favoured destination for Chinese investment so there's potential for funds to flow into the NZX through the planned investor scheme.

It will be a hard task, however, enticing Chinese investors away from their preferred asset class - property - towards foreign equities.

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China's scam-ridden, insider-trading plagued stock markets have given shares a bad name in the Asian economic powerhouse.

Hong Kong-based Li Gang says the Chinese have a predilection for "tangible assets" and encouraging them to put their money into global equity markets will require a fair amount of "investor education".

Through the overseas investment scheme, both domestic and foreign financial institutions will have a big role to play in helping China's investors negotiate international sharemarkets, he says.

Two-way street

The loosening of China's capital controls isn't wholly focused on unleashing Chinese cash on the world.

Beijing is also preparing to launch a scheme called the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which will give foreign investors access - previously unavailable - to more than 500 Shanghai-listed stocks, known as A-shares.

Until now only major foreign institutions have been able to invest in such equities. But investors looking to take part should be ready for a wild ride - and have money to lose.

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As the Economist recently noted, China's stock markets, since peaking in 2007, have been "among the world's best means of separating investors from their wealth".

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