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Home / Business / Markets / Shares

Stock Takes: A tough move onto the NZX

NZ Herald
7 Aug, 2014 09:30 PM6 mins to read

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Gentrack chief executive James Docking (left) and chairman John Clifford ring in the new era with NZX chief executive Tim Bennett (right). Photo / Brett Phibbs

Gentrack chief executive James Docking (left) and chairman John Clifford ring in the new era with NZX chief executive Tim Bennett (right). Photo / Brett Phibbs

Opinion by

The transition from private to public firm must be a tough one.

Suddenly company developments, be they positive or negative, are put under the microscope and subject to the scrutiny of financial analysts, investors, regulators and the media.

But that's the price you pay for the heightened profile and access to capital that comes with an initial public offering (IPO).

Gentrack, a developer of software used by airports and utilities, seemed to be struggling with its metamorphosis into a publicly owned firm after it downgraded its profit expectations last Friday, only five weeks after its NZX/ASX listing.

The company cut its full-year profit guidance by up to 32 per cent after it emerged that a major project with a new client would be delayed, as would a "substantial upgrade contract" with an existing customer.

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If the announcement wasn't enough, the misguided approach to public relations that followed made a bad situation worse.

On Friday, chief executive James Docking was tied up in meetings, reportedly with Gentrack's investment banking advisers UBS, and the company said he was unavailable for media interviews.

By Monday, Gentrack was flat out refusing to make any additional comment on the matter, which the Financial Markets Authority is looking into.

"We have nothing to add to, or comments to make regarding the notice on Friday," Gentrack marketing manager Aaron Baker told BusinessDesk.

To be fair, analysts and institutional investors were briefed on Friday and one fund manager said the company did a good job of explaining the situation.

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And on Wednesday, it issued a further update in which chairman John Clifford said the Gentrack board "deeply regrets" the downgrade.

The company said the circumstances that led to the downgrade had arisen after its listing and the financial impact of the customer issues had been established shortly before last Friday's announcement.

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Docking, who is among existing shareholders who raised $63 million selling shares to the IPO, talked to media on Wednesday.

But the fact remains that the downgrade has been deeply unsettling for shareholders and the additional comments included in the second release should have been in the initial announcement.

Gentrack - whose shares closed at $2.25 last night, 6.25 per cent below the $2.40 issue price - had been viewed as one of the more dependable technology IPOs this year.

Milford Asset Management executive director Brian Gaynor says the company's float had attracted conservative, cautious retail investors.

"This was the one [IPO] that looked safest to them and yet it's the one that's come unstuck - it's very disappointing from that point of view."

No changes have been made to the company's forecast dividends of $2.6 million to be paid in December, and Gentrack's profit projections for next year remain unchanged.

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ELECTORAL POWER

The outcome of next month's election might seem reasonably certain, but broker Craigs Investment Partners is still predicting an average share price lift of 13 per cent for electricity stocks if National is, as expected, victorious at the polls.

Labour and the Green Party have warned that they will introduce tough new regulations on the electricity sector if they win power.

In a research note, Craigs' head of private wealth research Mark Lister says "anything can happen under MMP" and the market is still pricing in the risk of a post-election Labour/Green government.

Craig's analysis forecasts an average decline of 17 per cent in the share prices of Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power, Contact Energy, TrustPower and Genesis Energy should the opposition be successful.

Lister is predicting Meridian to be the worst affected by a Labour win, with a 31 per cent decline.

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It would also enjoy the strongest lift in its share price (26 per cent) after a National victory.

He says the opposition argument that "water is free" and consumers should pay less for power generated from it would hurt hydro electricity generators - such as Meridian, Mighty River Power and Contact - the most.

Craigs estimates Mighty River's share price would fall 18 per cent, and Contact's 12 per cent, if the opposition wins.

Meridian shares closed up 3c at $1.25 and Mighty River closed up 1c at $2.36 yesterday.


RISK REDUCTION
Despite National's strong position in the polls, Lister says investors should "hedge their bets".

He says Craigs favours companies with solid prospects under the status quo and minimal downside if there is a change of government.

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They include those with low regulatory risk such as Port of Tauranga and Freightways and companies with overseas earnings, such as Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and A2 Milk.

"Companies that are already regulated - such as Vector and Auckland Airport - may also be more insulated from changes."

BIG WEEK

Brian Cadzow of Vista Entertainment Systems

Next week will be a big one for the NZX, as three listings are to take place.

Vista, which develops software used by cinema operators, will be the first cab off the rank on Monday when it floats on both sides of the Tasman in an IPO that will raise $40 million in new growth capital and value the Auckland-based company at $188 million.

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Mobile payments technology developer Pushpay is expected to carry out its NZAX compliance listing on Thursday.

The company has raised $9 million through a private share issue at $1 a share, which values the business at $50 million.

The week will be topped off on Friday with the listing of Eroad, a developer of technology used by transport firms for managing and paying road user charges and tracking fleets.

The North Shore-based company's float will raise $40 million in new capital - which will be used to finance its growth ambitions, particularly in the US - and value the company at $180 million.

Several other technology companies, including Wherescape and Orion Health, have been tipped to list this year, and the continuation of the NZX's IPO pipeline could well be decided by the success of the Eroad and Vista floats.

Of the five companies that have listed since June - technology developers Serko, Gentrack and ikeGPS, fruit marketer Scales Corporation and Metro Performance Glass - only the glass supplier's shares remain above their IPO price.

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NZX will also report its half-year financials on Monday in one of the first major results of the upcoming earnings season.

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