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Home / Business / Markets

Jarden Brief: China’s exports fall by billions but imports down even more

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7 Mar, 2023 07:39 PM6 mins to read

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Residents walk past reopened stores after Covid restrictions were eased in the district of Haizhu in southern China's Guangzhou province. Photo / AP

Residents walk past reopened stores after Covid restrictions were eased in the district of Haizhu in southern China's Guangzhou province. Photo / AP

Keeping you up to date with the latest market moves, in association with investment firm Jarden.

International

US

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc’s stock price increased by 8.2 per cent following the company’s Q4 earnings report, which surpassed analysts’ earnings estimates and delivered a better-than-expected full-year earnings outlook.

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The retailer’s Q4 net income was US$236 million, and it earned US$2.93 per share on an adjusted basis, beating the FactSet consensus of US$2.88 per share.

Dick’s Sporting Goods also reported Q4 sales of US$3.597 billion, up from US$3.352 billion a year ago, and exceeded the FactSet consensus of US$3.451 billion.

For fiscal year 2023, the company expects flat to up 2.0 per cent same-store sales growth and earnings of US$12.90 to US$13.80 per share, surpassing the FactSet consensus of US$12 per share. The company also announced it would double its quarterly dividend to US$1 per share.

Dole has released its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2022.

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Despite a challenging operating environment, the company delivered a full year financial performance with a revenue of US$9.2 billion and adjusted ebitda of US$337.7 million.

The company announced an agreement to sell its fresh vegetables division to Fresh Express for gross proceeds of approximately US$293.0 million.

Looking forward, the company targets full-year adjusted ebitda of US$350.0 million, assuming no contribution from the fresh vegetables division.

Rest of World

China’s exports fell by 6.8 per cent from a year earlier to US$506.3 billion in combined figures for the first two months of 2023, while imports fell by 10.2 per cent from a year earlier to US$389.42 billion, according to data released by China Customs.

China’s monthly exports have been declining since October due to weakening global demand, and its trade figures for January and February are combined to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Despite being better than expected, exports may drop again as the one-off boost from easing virus disruptions fades and cooling foreign demand remains a drag.

The deeper contraction of imports is more of a shock to the market than that of exports, with semiconductors seeing the biggest dip, declining by 45.1 per cent, while integrated circuits also dropped by 26.5 per cent.

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The decline in China’s exports is likely to be a drag on economic growth, and Beijing may have to depend more on domestic demand this year.

Grab Holdings, a Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company, has prepaid US$600 million in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity using its excess cash.

The transaction has reduced its outstanding term loan to US$517 million from US$1.117 billion.

The company has also bought back about $750 million in debt and taken out a US$500 million hedge with an interest-rate cap.

The move is expected to reduce cash flow volatility and generate interest savings, given the current macroeconomic environment.

Grab is targeting losses for adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of between US$275 million and US$325 million for 2023, and it expects to break even in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Commodities

The United States Energy Information Administration updated its monthly forecast, increasing its projection for global oil demand growth in 2023 by 370,000 barrels per day to 1.48 million barrels per day.

However, the agency revised its estimate for oil demand growth in 2024, reducing it by 0 barrels per day to 1.79 million barrels per day.

Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased interest rates for a tenth consecutive time to 3.6 per cent, the highest level since June 2012.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe confirmed the expected 25 basis points rise and flagged that more tightening of monetary policy would be necessary to bring inflation down to the goal range of 2-3 per cent.

Lowe said the central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next year, to be around 3 per cent in mid-2025, and the board’s priority is to return inflation to target.

Analysts from the big four banks have forecast that rates will peak between 3.85 per cent to 4.1 per cent by May, suggesting one to two more rate rises after Tuesday.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers admitted the latest interest rate rise would “make life harder for many Australians already under the pump”, but said the government would work through the inflation issue in a responsible and methodical way.

New Zealand

Turners Automotive Group has announced it is expected to achieve a record profit for FY23, with a projected profit of at least $44.0m, compared to the previous year’s $43.1m.

The company has seen consistent trading results over the summer months, particularly in auto retail, and market dynamics have remained stable.

The recent weather events did not affect the company’s operations, and there is an expected increase in demand for damaged cars due to supply restrictions caused by the Clean Car Standard, which is expected to be favourable for used vehicle pricing and margins.

South Port, a New Zealand-based port company, has reported a net profit of $5.2 million for the six months ended December 2022, a decline from $5.9m the previous year, due to challenging domestic economic conditions and a slowdown in the Chinese property market.

Cargo activity also fell by 0.7 per cent due to a decline in logs, fuel, and fertiliser.

The company’s board has declared an interim dividend of 7.5 cents per share but downgraded its full-year profit guidance due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and uncertainty caused by global events.

The company is forecasting a net profit between $11.1m and $11.6m, compared to its previous guidance of $12.8m issued in October 2022.

However, the company received resource consent to dredge the harbour entrance and berth, allowing it to increase the port’s capacity to load more cargo on vessels and provide safer transit.

South Port is also interested in Meridian Energy’s proposal to develop a green hydrogen development plant, which would create competition for the electricity consumed by the country’s largest electricity user, New Zealand Aluminium Smelter.

For more information on the latest market moves, get in touch with Jarden.

The Jarden Brief is provided for general information purposes only. It reflects views and research available at the time of publication, using external sources, systems and other data and information we believe to be accurate, complete and reliable at the time of preparation. We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, correctness and completeness of that information, and will not be liable or responsible for any error or omission. The Jarden Brief is not to be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decision. Please seek specific investment advice before making any investment decision. Jarden Securities Limited is an NZX Firm. A financial advice disclosure statement is available free of charge at https://www.jarden.co.nz/our-services/wealth-management/financial-advice-provider-disclosure-statement/ .

Full disclaimer available at: https://www.jarden.co.nz/wealth-sales-and-research-disclaimer

All market pricing and announcements are sourced from Refinitiv, NZX and ASX.

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