NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Mark Lister: Reserve Bank should quit while it's ahead

By Mark Lister
NZ Herald·
25 Sep, 2016 01:15 AM3 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler.

I'm starting to think that the Reserve Bank should just quit while they're ahead.

Leave the official cash rate (OCR) where it is, and don't bother cutting it any lower.

Interest rates are a tool to help keep an economy running at the correct pace, not too fast and not too slow.

When things start to look overheated, crank them up to increase borrowing costs, discourage spending and slow things down a little.

When things are looking shaky, reduce them to boost investment, spending and hiring.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

So that begs the question, when an economy is going as well as ours, why on earth would we want a record low OCR, let alone to cut it even further into emergency territory?

Our growth rate is 3.6 per cent, higher than just about anywhere else in the developed world, and the best we've posted since 2014.

Yes, population growth has been a big contributor, but even on a per capita basis, we're still ahead of the US, Europe and Japan.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Unemployment is low at around 5 per cent, house prices are rising, while tourism and construction are booming.

Dairy has been the only weak link, but now we've seen prices rebound more than 30 per cent in two months, pushing the Fonterra payout above breakeven for the first time in three years.

The high NZ dollar is the only real reason to cut interest rates, but the Reserve Bank might well be fighting a losing battle there.

Our high currency is simply a reflection of our better growth prospects and stronger economy.

Discover more

Opinion

Capital gains tax by any other name

26 Sep 04:00 PM
Employment

The importance of CEOs speaking out

26 Sep 04:00 PM
Business

Hillary gets the nod from NZ business

26 Sep 09:30 PM
Airlines

Top boss says NZ needs to fix inequality

26 Sep 07:15 PM

Even if the OCR was 1.5 per cent, it would still be head and shoulders above those in the US, UK, Europe and Japan.

Besides, what's so wrong with a strong currency anyway? There are arguably more New Zealanders that benefit from it being high than from it collapsing.

Consumers, travellers and importers are all better off under a high dollar. It keeps a lid on petrol prices and transport costs, which helps even the poorest parts of society.

The export sector would obviously be happier if the currency was lower, but plenty of exporters are doing just fine at the moment.

Just about all of the listed exporters are in the best shape they've ever been and posting record profits, while key manufacturing indicators have signalled expansion for 19 consecutive months.

Maybe export success is more to do with having efficient, sustainable business models than where the currency is at.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Inflation is much lower than the Reserve Bank would like, but that's only because cheaper imports are dragging it down.

Non-tradable inflation (the kind we don't import) has averaged around two per cent over the last couple of years.

The basket doesn't seem to reflect reality anyway, with "unavoidable" inflation (like rates, insurance, rent and electricity) showing no signs of weakness.

The economy is fine and doesn't need more stimulus, while further OCR cuts might only have a minimal impact on the dollar.

Maybe all we're doing is pouring further unnecessary fuel on our housing bubble, and leaving ourselves with even less options up our sleeve for when we really do need it.

Mark Lister is head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners. This column is general in nature and should not be regarded as specific investment advice.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Herald NOW

Herald NOW: Business with 2degrees: 18 June 2025

Premium
Media Insider

'Defining moment': Ad agencies cleared for huge merger, amid warnings of media job losses

17 Jun 07:11 PM
Markets with Madison

'Era of abundance': Inside America’s nuclear energy effort

17 Jun 07:00 PM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Herald NOW: Business with 2degrees: 18 June 2025

Herald NOW: Business with 2degrees: 18 June 2025

Garth Bray speaks with Ryan Bridge about food prices and inflation. Video / Herald NOW

Premium
'Defining moment': Ad agencies cleared for huge merger, amid warnings of media job losses

'Defining moment': Ad agencies cleared for huge merger, amid warnings of media job losses

17 Jun 07:11 PM
'Era of abundance': Inside America’s nuclear energy effort

'Era of abundance': Inside America’s nuclear energy effort

17 Jun 07:00 PM
Premium
Inside Economics: Why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

Inside Economics: Why tomorrow’s GDP data won’t tell the real story

17 Jun 06:00 PM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP