NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Low interest NZ rates, low inflation likely to remain

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
15 Oct, 2017 04:00 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Rising petrol prices are expected to be a bit part of an expected 0.4 pct lift in the CPI over the September quarter. Picture/NZ Herald.

Rising petrol prices are expected to be a bit part of an expected 0.4 pct lift in the CPI over the September quarter. Picture/NZ Herald.

Low interest rates look likely to remain for some time yet if this week's third quarter consumers price data continues to point to subdued inflation, as economists expect.

Tuesday's release from Statistics NZ is expected to show that inflation ticked up by 0.4 per cent over the September quarter, making for a 1.8 per cent gain, year-on-year.

That's up a touch from the Reserve Bank's own forecasts but still nothing to shake the bank from its current stance, which is to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at a record-low 1.75 per cent.

At 1.8 per cent, the annual rise would take inflation close to the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's mandated 1 to 3 per cent range.

The fact that inflation has remained low for such a long time, both here and around the world, remains a great mystery for economists.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

In New Zealand's case, recent history shows that inflation only went outside the Reserve Bank's target band in 2010 and 2011, around the time the Government raised GST to 15 per cent from 12.5 per cent.

Abnormally low inflation is something that has been exercising the minds of central bankers here and the around the world.

"It's not just a local phenomenon," ASB Bank senior economist Mark Smith said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Globally, people are scratching their heads, saying why is inflation continuing to stay so low?

"We don't see anything on the horizon that suggests that inflation is going to pick up significantly, and so the Reserve Bank will have the luxury of keeping the official cash rate where it is for quite a long period of time," Smith said.

The Reserve Bank's OCR is just one influence over what happens to interest rates. There are others.

There is straight-out demand for mortgage finance.

Discover more

Business

Election uncertainty's chilling effect on houses for sale

15 Oct 07:09 PM

Spring is typically a time when a lot of real estate tends to change hands, so demand for mortgages generally heats up, but muted house sales compared with this time last year has meant lower demand, Smith said.

Another influence is wholesale interest rates, which have remained at around 2 to 2.5 per cent over the last 12 months.

There are overseas funding costs, which are largely influenced by the US Federal Reserve.

Expectations are that the Fed will hike rates three times next year, but there remains conjecture as to when or if the bank will move.

Finally, bank funding costs have an impact; six month deposit rates of around 3.5 per cent suggests banks are competing to fund themselves locally.

But for the time being, economists do not expect domestic interest rates to race away.
NZIER senior economist Christina Leung agreed that there was no urgency for the Reserve Bank to start raising rates.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There was potential for upward pressure on mortgage interest rates if there was an escalation in political tension around the world, or if the Fed started hiking rates, Leung said.

"Overall, while we would expect to see potential for interest rates to lift over the coming years, we would expect them to remain low from an historical perspective," she said.

At the Reserve Bank's September review, acting Reserve Bank governor Grant Spencer signalled no change was imminent.

Rates have been on hold since November last year and the central bank's forecasts show it does not expect to lift them until September 2019, at the earliest.

At Tuesday's release, housing and food continue to be the key drivers of inflation, with pressures soft elsewhere.

Rising petrol prices and a stronger near-term outlook for food prices likely explain much of the difference with the Reserve Bank's forecast of a 0.2 per cent quarterly increase.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"We expect the CPI to confirm that domestic inflation pressures remain subdued outside of one or two pockets and while the outlook for economic activity remains constructive and the beneficiary of a number of key supports, evidence of a firming in inflationary pressure is mixed at best, ANZ senior economist Phil Borkin said.

"The hurdle for action remains high, and policy looks set to be on hold for an extended period," Borkin said.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Business|markets

'Removes unnecessary red tape': NZX on new IPO rules

15 May 03:59 AM
New Zealand

'Job well done': Sanford doubles half year profit

15 May 03:22 AM
Premium
Retail

Briscoes reveals plans for 'mini metro' stores

15 May 03:07 AM

“Not an invisible footprint”: Why technology supply chains need optimising

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

'Removes unnecessary red tape': NZX on new IPO rules

'Removes unnecessary red tape': NZX on new IPO rules

15 May 03:59 AM

NZX says new market rules will free up the capital raising process.

'Job well done': Sanford doubles half year profit

'Job well done': Sanford doubles half year profit

15 May 03:22 AM
Premium
Briscoes reveals plans for 'mini metro' stores

Briscoes reveals plans for 'mini metro' stores

15 May 03:07 AM
Premium
'Wave of opportunity' – 120 new jobs, some require no experience

'Wave of opportunity' – 120 new jobs, some require no experience

15 May 03:00 AM
Deposit scheme reduces risk, boosts trust – General Finance
sponsored

Deposit scheme reduces risk, boosts trust – General Finance

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP