Reported past activity (the best indicator of GDP in the survey) was looking much brighter for every sector except construction, though this was also off its lows.
Reported past employment was also rising, off weaker levels.
“Green shoots are looking well established,” Zollner said.
“It is particularly encouraging that the improvement in sentiment is rooted in an improvement in experienced activity, not just hope. That provides a degree of reassurance that the lift will be sustained this time.”
Inflation indicators were mixed: the net percentage of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months lifted from 44% to 51%, the highest since March, but those expecting cost increases eased two points to 74%.
One-year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 2.7%.
ANZ’s industry “heat map” showed a lot more rises than falls.
Lifts were broad-based but by far most meaningful and consistent for manufacturing, Zollner said.
“In level terms, construction past activity and employment are a weak spot but the latter did lift sharply, and leading indicators for construction such as consents, ANZ card spend at architects and Google searches for renovation terms are all lifting, suggesting the sector is turning the corner.”
The regional breakdowns showed Wellington remained the weakest region in terms of both experienced and expected activity, but it didn’t miss out on the improvement this month.
“The lift in past activity this month was broad-based regionally, but was particularly dramatic in Auckland and the South Island outside of Canterbury,” Zollner said.
With the recovery under way and Consumer Price Index inflation at the top of the target band, ANZ was not expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) again this cycle, barring unexpected developments, she said.
The Reserve Bank yesterday cut the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25% and has reduced the odds of another cut in February.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Heraldin 2003.
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