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Home / Business

Liam Dann: West joins in cautious optimism on China

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
27 Mar, 2017 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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China's economy isn't easily captured in a quick snapshot. There are numerous seemingly contradictory complexities.

For almost as long as I've been covering the Chinese economy it has been a story of decelerating growth.

So it was no surprise that the official GDP target announced by Premier Li Keqiang early this month was 6.5 per cent - down on growth of 6.7 per cent achieved last year.

That gradual slowing of growth hasn't held back New Zealand's trade relationship.

In fact, to put it in perspective, the Chinese economy will grow by about US$740 billion in 2017 compared to growth of US$497b in 2007 - when the pace of growth was 14 per cent.

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We've continued to benefit greatly with demand for our exports remaining strong.

Still, during this period of so-called "rebalancing" there has always been plenty to worry about - debt levels, market bubbles and capital flight.

But the 6.5 per cent target has been interpreted as a conservative one which will allow the political and central bank leadership to concentrate on these risks in the economy.

After the annual People's Congress meeting in Beijing, Premier Li reassured the world that China was at no risk of a hard landing.

What was surprising about his bullish outlook is that, this year, there was no shortage of Western commentators who agreed with him.

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That's not to say that all the worries are gone, but in the first few months of 2017 many normally bearish China analysts have shifted to a cautious optimism.

The news has no doubt been overshadowed by the high drama of US politics and the intense focus on its economic recovery story.

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But there have been a series of upbeat research notes from the likes of investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs - both of which now have shifted their assessment of Chinese markets to "overweight".

Statistics this month have shown China's industrial production climbed 6.3 per cent from a year earlier - above market predictions. Writing in Bloomberg, economist Jason Schenker makes the case for a bullish outlook on manufacturing.

The sector was effectively in recession from December 2014 to June 2016. That wasn't reflected in GDP reports but can be seen if you look at private surveys like the Caixen report done by Markit Economics. That surveys purchasing managers for small to medium-sized manufacturers and showed contractions for nearly every month in that period.

This naturally flowed through to commodity prices. Schenker cites oil, aluminium, copper and rubber as examples. Here in New Zealand we saw a sharp decline in prices for dairy ingredients in this period.

The good news is that the Caixen China manufacturing index has been in recovery - to the end of February at least. As usual we need to touch wood: there have been commodity wobbles in March.

But there have been other positive signs. Retail sales rose 9.5 per cent in the first two months of the year and total fixed asset investment grew 8.9 per cent in the same period.

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Other key signs of a strengthening economy, cited by Bloomberg, include property development investment rising 8.9 per cent and new home sales rising 23 per cent.

Those look like a bit of a mixed blessing. A property market crash in China is an ever-present risk and news that it is heating up again won't thrill anyone other than the real estate agents in Shanghai and Beijing.

China's economy isn't easily captured in a quick snapshot. There are numerous seemingly contradictory complexities.

After the market meltdowns early last year threatened a more serious economic slump, the Government unleashed billions in stimulus - both fiscal and monetary.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) this month raised the official cash rate - a move which should in theory tighten conditions for borrowing.

But then it has also continued to inject cash in to the economy, most recently last week after a surge in interbank rates on rumours that some smaller banks had missed debt payments.

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The PBOC has officially warned it isn't happy with China's corporate debt levels - but that doesn't mean there is any quick fix. Some form of market-led crisis remains a risk.

But there is cause for optimism that even within the broader framework of an ongoing deceleration (or rebalancing as Chinese officials prefer to say) this could be a strong year for China.

If the US recovery continues steadily then China will benefit too - we all will. The global economy may even be on track to enjoy a strong period of growth with twin engines of China and the US firing.

But one dark shadow hovers over that upbeat prognosis - Trump and his administration's attitude to trade, and more specifically to China relations. There has been plenty of rhetoric but how it will pan out in reality remains uncertain.

After the People's Congress meeting, Premier Li also reiterated China's commitment to free trade. His visit to New Zealand will be a great opportunity for New Zealand to show its shared commitment to that goal.

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