Trying to remember everything that's happened in a year can be difficult, writes Liam Dann. Especially when Star Wars, Justin Bieber and the Rugby World Cup are at the top of the brain. He gives us his 2015 Business Year In Review (sort of).
So 2015, the year that Justin Bieber and Star Wars came back. Also we won the rugby. After that it gets a bit murky.
At least, anything that happened more than two weeks ago does for me. Any further back than that and I'd probably just mix things up with somethingthat happened in 2014.
This could be the year's worst year-in-review. Sorry. It has been frantic.
For such a placid and relatively benign economic environment the speed and energy with which corporate New Zealand has needed to operate to make money has been frightening.
It's not the scale of events that have defined this year. Things happened - that's all they ever do.
It is the speed of technological change that has shaken business to its core.
Ok, I'm in the media. We've been in the thick of this for years now. But this year I look around at colleagues and contacts in a whole range of industries and I see the same urgency for reinvention.
Buying, selling, pricing, accounting, logistics, distribution marketing and advertising - it's a brave new world for all of them.
The rapid rise of disruptor businesses is changing where, when and how money is made so it is affecting macro-economic patterns. It is challenging monetary policy tools and it is challenging our regulatory rules. It is even challenging governments' ability to raise taxes.
The disruption flows through everything, it surrounds us and defines us. And it comes with a dark side. So its just like an annoying Justin Bieber tune really.
Anyway with that thought, here is my 2015 list of business highlights (from the last two weeks).
Uber calls our bluff
Uber has become symbolic of the disruptive changes happening in the business world. Photo / AP
The great disruptor is angry about having to obey the same rules as other taxi providers.
It has threatened to halt its expansion in New Zealand, claiming it is the Government's job "to open up economic opportunity and choice for its citizens".
Yes sure, but the Government's first job is to keep its citizens safe.
Quite why a company - particularly one involving motor vehicles - should get to skip industry regulation just because it does business on a new technological platform isn't clear to me.
The internet is not magic. It is a tool like the steam engine and telegraph machine before it. Neither efficiency and nor efficacy should lift it above the law.
Uber is just a taxi app but it has become symbolic of the change in business.
Uberisation is a buzz word for disruption. It's for this reason the Government needs to hold the line on its right to set the rules.
Receivers have been called in for the second time on the 420-home Mt Wellington property development that was being touted as a shiny example of smart affordable housing for Auckland.
It wasn't so long ago that the Government was completely wedded to a supply side solution to Auckland's housing shortage.
Springpark is the latest reminder of just how difficult it is to move quickly on massive home-building projects in Auckland.
There are numerous other issues holding up Auckland house building too but they involve zoning and planning rules so complex and tedious that no one seems to really want to confront them.
Meanwhile, the Government has at least acknowledged the multi-dimensional nature of the problem this year, introducing new rules for property investors that may already be strating to have an effect on the market.
GDP
Economic growth for the third quarter surprised on the upside - by a whisker. The good news is that tourism is booming and that is offsetting some of the slump in dairy.
But the other bright spot, manufacturing, wasn't so bright. That's because the uplift was driven by meat processing - a big manufacturing sector in New Zealand.
The reason it is in overdrive is actually quite ominous. There's a drought coming and the farmers are culling.
Oil
In the past couple of weeks oil prices have slumped again, big time. A barrel of Texas crude has fallen below US$35. Two years ago it was up around US$120.
Last year we saw the big fall to US$40 but for most of this year it had been on the mend.
For those us about to fill up the car and drive to the beach for a holiday this is good news. But for those worried about global deflation it is bad news.
Oil effects the production of nearly everything we consume. Lack of demand is a barometer for global growth, particularly the slowdown in China.
It is also a pretty good barometer for the rest of the globally traded commodities - including dairy.
Rate cuts
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates and the US Federal Reserve raised them.
This is the magic formula that was supposed to send our dollar sliding to levels that will make our exporters happy. That didn't happen. Cause and effect aren't what they used to be for monetary policy.
Perhaps it just takes longer now. Or perhaps it is in need of structural change.
That's been one of the big economic debates of 2015 across the world. Uberisation and commodity slumps make the deflation threat serious. Rates need to go a lot lower say many local economists.
At this point they are at odds with Reserve Bank forecasts, and the market which predicts rate will stay on hold from here. Things will come to a crunch in 2016. Someone is going to be right.
