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Home / Business

Liam Dann: EU trade deal huge win for NZ - just don't expect short term gain

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
1 Jul, 2022 05:33 AM4 mins to read

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New Zealand and the European Union have agreed to a free trade deal. Photo / Thomas Coughlan

New Zealand and the European Union have agreed to a free trade deal. Photo / Thomas Coughlan

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
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OPINION:

The EU trade deal is a huge win for New Zealand.

It has the potential to reshape our economy and significantly reduce our reliance on meat and dairy farming.

It will help in our attempts to diversify away from a reliance on exporting to China.

But we need to recognise that the reasons this deal is so good aren't to do with delivering a short-term economic boost.

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This is a deal that delivers an export growth pathway for the next 50 years - not the next five.

First up it's worth remembering that, for Kiwi consumers struggling with the high cost of living, trade deals never offer any significant relief.

That's because New Zealand is already a free-trading nation. We removed almost all our tariffs and quotas in the 1980s and 1990s.

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There a numerous reasons that Kiwis are paying too much at supermarkets - but trade barriers are not one of them.

So, sadly, it's not like we're about to be flooded with cheap French wine and cheese.

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European exporters are already able to sell their products here without the kind of extra price barriers that New Zealand exporters faced there.

If anything it's European consumers that will benefit as the arrival of more New Zealand produce adds competition at their local supermarkets.

That's exactly what European farmers were worried about and why the deal has been so hard to get across the line.

In fact, it's one of the reasons the deal doesn't offer much value for Kiwi meat and dairy exporters.

We're seen as too much of a threat in those sectors and the European dairy and meat farming lobby was too powerful to allow much concession.

That failure to gain significant tariff-free access for meat and dairy means the immediate economic boost from the deal isn't as big as it might have been.

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Federated Farmers has called it a failure for those reasons.

But with all due respect to the Feds, it is an organisation that has yet to come to terms with the reality that New Zealand needs to reduce its reliance on meat and dairy.

We were never going to get a free-trade deal with the EU on terms that suited our meat and dairy exporters.

Walking away from a deal and the potential growth path it offers all our other export sectors would have made no sense.

This deal changes our trading relationship with Europe in a deep and historic way.

Our meat and dairy exporters are doing fine. Export prices are at, or near, record highs.

The sector doesn't need new markets to survive.

It's understandable that these sectors would like European access so they can keep growing.

But when we look at our long-term future, many Kiwis now feel uncomfortable at the idea of that growth - particularly in more dairy.

For once these traditional sectors were not the priority. As hard as it might be for them to accept, that is a significant step forward in New Zealand's economic journey.

Meanwhile, the deal is a big win for kiwifruit, wine, onions, apples, mānuka honey and all sorts of niche horticultural products.

It also includes manufacturing and the services sector.

This is a transformational deal that offers New Zealand a strong pathway to diversify its economy away from traditional export commodities.

It incentivises the parts of the economy we need to grow to improve our productivity and deliver real gains in wealth and well-being.

The Government hopes this deal can grow export earnings from Europe by $1.8 billion by 2035.

That in itself is not a huge number. But we need to consider the wider value that incentivising investment in these sectors can bring.

Ultimately that will reap benefits far beyond Europe.

So, I don't think the lack of access for dairy and meat is much to worry about.

In fact, in the long run it will be good for us.

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