NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Liam Dann: All eyes on America's faltering recovery

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
4 Oct, 2015 09:30 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

A free trade deal with the US is the holy grail for many exporters. Picture / AP

A free trade deal with the US is the holy grail for many exporters. Picture / AP

Liam Dann
Opinion by Liam Dann
Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.
Learn more

New Zealand is on the verge of signing a historic free trade deal with America and the world's largest economy may soon have more influence than ever on our economic outlook.

Too bad, then, that the US recovery is progressing so slowly that it has some economists questioning whether it is a recovery at all.

For those watching it closely over the past two years there is an air of Groundhog Day about the flow of data and ever-shifting horizon for interest rate hikes.

That's certainly the case after Friday's key jobs report.

READ MORE:
• Editorial: Clark's words on trade deal badly needed
• Drugs hold up TPP as talks near end
• Breakthrough on TPP deal

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

American employers added 142,000 workers to payrolls in September, fewer than the lowest estimate of 96 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

This piece of data does seem to have rattled US economic commentators.

As sure as a couple of poor All Black performances have the New Zealand public panicking about quarter-final doom, there is growing scepticism in the US about the Federal Reserve's ability to raise rates this year.

So is the US economy spluttering? Or were economists just overly optimistic with their projections.

Expectations had been for a job growth number of about 200,000.

Discover more

Economy

Wall St experts at odds on Fed direction

13 Sep 05:00 PM
Companies

Returns dip but sharemarket bulls still running

20 Sep 01:00 PM
Opinion

Will the Reserve Bank cut in October?

20 Sep 09:00 PM
Opinion

Fran O'Sullivan: Dairy at risk, China free trade deal updated

25 Sep 09:30 PM

The September statistics left the US unemployment rate at 5.1 per cent and commentators saying there was no positive spin to this news.

The focus remains on whether the Fed will raise rates this calendar year and has become so intense that it surely now outweighs its importance at a fundamental level.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

It has become something of an obsession for the business media there - almost to the point of national pride.

The US, like most of the West, still has no inflation to speak of. So it is hard to see why there is a pressing need for higher rates before 2016 - other than the psychological boost associated with declaring: "America is back."

Psychological boosts shouldn't be underrated, of course.

And the political pressure could simply be too much for the Federal Reserve governors, who will lean towards December regardless.

Sentiment can drive economies a long way but a real recovery needs also to be underpinned by production and consumption.

Also the confidence boost that a rate rise may bring needs to outweigh the effect of increased borrowing costs. So regardless of when the first move comes, one suspects the track for higher US rates will be looking very flat.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

As sure as a couple of poor All Black performances have the New Zealand public panicking about quarter-final doom, there is growing scepticism in the US about the Federal Reserve's ability to raise rates this year.

In New Zealand we currently feel the effects of the Chinese slowdown more acutely but the US malaise continues to exert as much influence over the global economy.

The pending Trans Pacific Partnership highlights New Zealand's place at an interesting historical juncture, poised between two hemispheres in economic outlook and, increasingly, in cultural outlook.

Our Free Trade Agreement with China has been dynamic and valuable. It has underpinned growth in this country through most of the global financial crisis.

But a free trade deal with America remains the holy grail for many New Zealand exporters.

In the US, as it has here, China's slowdown is now getting the blame for the sluggish economy.

The commodity slump and fall in global exports has not helped it rebound.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The rise of the domestic oil industry over the past decade has made this current cycle of cheap oil less beneficial than it was for America in the 1990s.

Fuel has been cheap for more than a year now.

In an already deflationary environment the upside for consumers hasn't outweighed the macro effects of a depressed oil industry. Nor has it provided as much of a job-creating boost for the wider industrial sector as it once might have.

The slow pace of the US recovery is disappointing for Americans and it is for us, too.

When America booms it really booms.

New Zealand would certainly feel the effect that an American economy in top gear brings to other export markets. And we'd feel it directly through tourism and trade - perhaps more than ever if we are part of a US-inclusive free trade deal.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from Business

Premium
Shares

Market close: NZ sharemarket rises as gentailers make gains

09 May 06:03 AM
Premium
Media Insider

Noise ban, off-limit interviews: TVNZ's rules as RNZ moves in; Ad agencies take aim at global merger

09 May 05:43 AM
Premium
Media Insider

'Very happy': Jim Grenon to join NZME board with Steven Joyce in peace deal that ends bitter battle

09 May 05:42 AM

“Not an invisible footprint”: Why technology supply chains need optimising

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Market close: NZ sharemarket rises as gentailers make gains

Market close: NZ sharemarket rises as gentailers make gains

09 May 06:03 AM

The NZ sharemarket rose strongly today as gentailers made gains across the board.

Premium
Noise ban, off-limit interviews: TVNZ's rules as RNZ moves in; Ad agencies take aim at global merger

Noise ban, off-limit interviews: TVNZ's rules as RNZ moves in; Ad agencies take aim at global merger

09 May 05:43 AM
Premium
'Very happy': Jim Grenon to join NZME board with Steven Joyce in peace deal that ends bitter battle

'Very happy': Jim Grenon to join NZME board with Steven Joyce in peace deal that ends bitter battle

09 May 05:42 AM
Butter prices: Here’s how much they  might still rise

Butter prices: Here’s how much they might still rise

09 May 05:03 AM
Deposit scheme reduces risk, boosts trust – General Finance
sponsored

Deposit scheme reduces risk, boosts trust – General Finance

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP