‘NZ loses lustre’ as Kiwi departures hit new record and total net migration rate eases

Kiwis continue to leave the country at record levels. NZH File Photo

• New Zealand experienced a net migration loss of 56,500 citizens in the year to April 2024.
• India led migrant arrivals with 48,000, while the largest departure group was New Zealanders at 81,200.
• Migrant departures to Australia resulted in a net loss of 24,200 people for the year ended September 2023.

New Zealand citizens continue to leave the country at record levels, according to new Stats NZ data.

More than 81,000 Kiwis departed long-term in the year to April for a net loss of 56,500, exceeding the previous record of 52,000 in the year to March.

A record number of Kiwis are departing as “New Zealand loses its lustre,” said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.

“This, combined with moderating arrivals of non-NZ citizens is expected to drive net migration inflows lower over time,” he said.

New Zealand’s total net migration gain remains at historically high levels but it continued to decline. New Zealand gained 98,500 migrants in the year to April.

That is down from 106,000 in the year to March.

“The provisional net migration gain of 98,500 in the April 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 154,900 non-New Zealand citizens, which more than offset a net migration loss of 56,500 New Zealand citizens,” Stats NZ said.

For migrant arrivals in the April 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 48,000 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of the Philippines (30,300), China (25,700), New Zealand: (24,800) and Fiji (10,400).

For migrant departures in the April 2024 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 81,200 departures. The next largest groups were citizens of China (7600) and the UK (5100).

Monthly migration for April 2024 compared with April 2023 saw migrant arrivals: 19,900 down 7 per cent and migrant departures: 17,700 up 109 per cent.

“The non-New Zealand versus New Zealand citizen differences in migration remained stark,” said ASB’s Smith. “We are continuing to see net outflow of New Zealand citizens, as Kiwis seek greener pastures offshore. It follows that departures will continue to pick up as Kiwis seek better opportunities abroad.”

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon noted that total migrant inflows remained above their pre-Covid levels.

“However, they are running below the peak seen in the early part of 2023, which reflected both the peak in work visa approvals and the return of international students for the first time since Covid,” he said.

The more significant change has been in departures by both New Zealand citizens and others, he said.

“Departures of New Zealanders have been on an upward trend since early 2022, which likely reflects a catch-up on delayed plans. More recently there has also been a lift in departures of non-New Zealand citizens, which may be a sign that deteriorating job prospects are prompting some migrants to return home.”

The latest data for departures to Australia is only available to September 2023. It shows there was a provisional net migration loss of 24,200 people to Australia in the year ended September 2023. This was made up of 18,000 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 42,200 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged nearly 30,000 a year during 2004–2013, and about 3,000 a year during 2014–2019, Stats NZ said.

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.