The labour market still remains strong but is showing signs of stabilising as it comes off historical highs last year. Photo / Getty Images
Demand for workers remains strong ahead of a predicted recession and rise in unemployment later this year, according to new data from Seek NZ.
The employment marketplace releases its March Employment Report today which reveals job ad volumes rose for the third consecutive month, up a further 1 per cent from February 2023.
Job ad volumes have risen 4 per cent so far this year.
When compared with March 2022, job ad volumes fell 11 per cent nationwide, but are 19 per cent higher compared to March 2019.
Applications per job ad rose 4 per cent in February 2023 (data which has a one-month lag) and have now risen 61 per cent since June last year.
Seek NZ country manager Rob Clark told the Herald the market remains strong but was normalising.
“We’re coming off historical highs last year in particular so we’re seeing certainly a decline in job ad volumes versus last year but a stabilisation in the last three months.
“One important fact to note is if we look at the job numbers now they are still 15-20 per cent higher than they were pre-Covid and at the same time in 2019.
“So it’s still a strong market but it’s certainly a more balanced market when we compare it to last year.”
Clark said it was encouraging for candidates who are looking for jobs and good news for hirers too.
“There’s a lot of interest and curiosity and that’s translating into more applications now more so than it did last year when there was just a lot of caution in the market,” he said.
He said the big call-out was the hospitality and tourism sector.
“If you think the last three months versus this time last year, I think there has been an almost 50 per cent increase in the number of job ads so that sector which has had a particularly torrid time is starting to bounce back,” Clark said.
“What we saw in Covid was a lot of the sort of lower-paid jobs were the ones that suffered the most, particularly those where you couldn’t work from home. Once we were out of that then you get the reverse impact where now they’re looking to hire for those roles, particularly in hospitality and tourism.
“And the demand for talent is really strong and so, in many sectors, they’re still struggling to find the talent that they need to fill those roles.”
On a monthly basis, job ad volumes were driven higher by sales (up 8 per cent), education and training (up 8 per cent) and retail and consumer products (up 4 per cent).
The most notable gainers in applications per job ad were recorded in trades and services roles (up 13 per cent), information and communication technology (+11 per cent) and manufacturing, transport and logistics (+8 per cent).
“We’ve still got really high jobs in the big five as we call them,” Clark said. “Trades and services, manufacturing, transport, logistics, hospitality and tourism … they’re really still strong and growing.
“We’ve seen a bit of softness in ICT and healthcare but that’s off the back of really high numbers last year,” he said.
“And those are the five industries where you tend to find the most jobs on a regular basis.”
Compared with February 2023, job ad levels increased in most regions, led by Hawke’s Bay which was up 23 per cent.
“The big story for March in particular was the jump in job ad volumes for the Hawke’s Bay and Napier area off the back of Cyclone Gabrielle,” Clark told the Herald.
“Otherwise, it was the main centres that was driving the job ad volumes in March relative to February with sort of 1-3 per cent increases.”
Auckland job ads rose 3 per cent month on month, Waikato was up 2 per cent, and Canterbury and Wellington were both up 1 per cent.
Otago experienced the largest year-on-year rise in job ads, fuelled by a Covid bounce-back, up 6 per cent.
“You’ll see some bumps, particularly as it relates to hospitality and tourism,” Clark said of the Otago region.
In a speech at the Institute of Finance Professionals (INFINZ) annual conference last October, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr warned that the interest rate hikes needed to beat inflation would mean higher unemployment.
“Returning to low inflation will, in the near-term, constrain employment growth and lead to a rise in unemployment,” he said at the conference.
“The actual extent of this trade-off remains unclear, however, given the significant labour shortages globally and the very different means of employment being adopted post-Covid.
“Importantly, it is highly unlikely that we are at maximum sustainable employment if inflation is still high and variable,” Orr said.