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Home / Business

Jarden Brief: Inflation, recession spectres put housing to the test

NZ Herald
19 Oct, 2022 07:31 PM6 mins to read

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t's a jungle out there: Jeff Bezos weighed in on the current state of the world's biggest economy. Photo / Getty

t's a jungle out there: Jeff Bezos weighed in on the current state of the world's biggest economy. Photo / Getty

Keeping you up to date with the latest market moves, in association with Investment firm Jarden

International

US

US equities lost ground made up earlier in the week as rising yields hindered stock valuations across the board, leaving the three main indices down roughly 1 per cent each at the time of writing. Energy was the only sector in the green at +2.2 per cent.

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Energy sector movements were likely influenced by President Joe Biden's announcement to award US$2.8 billion in funding toward US based EV battery manufacturing projects, which should allow companies in at least 12 states to extract and process rare earth metals (involved in EV production) at a faster rate.

Coupled with this announcement, Biden removed tax credits on imported EVs, with foreign EV makers such as Hyundai saying it will have an "astronomical" impact on its business.

The US housing sector's ability to hold up in the current inflationary and potentially recessionary environment is being tested, with new mortgage applications in September down 4.5 per cent (-2.0 per cent last month) coupled with weaker than expected housing starts at 1,439,000 vs an anticipated 1,461,000.

Amazon (-2.0 per cent) founder and CEO Jeff Bezos weighed in on the current state of the economy, saying, "…the probabilities in this economy tell you batten down the hatches".

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Amazon's competitor in the streaming space, Netflix (+12.4 per cent) is currently this morning's top performing stock after the streaming provider added 2.4 million subscribers in the third quarter, ending the trend of the previous two quarters.

Rest of the World

Various sets of inflation data continue to come in, as the UK and Canada published monthly CPI figures this morning.

Canada's annualised core CPI remained stable at 5.3 per cent, however, UK inflation returned to double digits at 10.1 per cent after a 0.5 per cent month-on-month increase in September.

Overnight, Asian equities reacted to Hong Kong's Chief Executive John Lee's first address since election in June, which included various initiatives to attract skilled expats and investment back to the city.

Lee said the government will distribute billions to attract workers and businesses to pursue their interests in Hong Kong. Property was also a benefactor, with permanent residents now able to apply for a refund on extra stamp duty paid on properties in the city.

Commodities

Amongst the commonly tracked commodities, oil moved off its two-week lows (+2.2 per cent), after OPEC+ stressed that the growing risk of a worldwide recession justifies the recently floated supply cuts of between one to two million barrels per day.

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Yields continue to be volatile, as the US 10-Year Treasury rate gained 11 basis points to 4.11 per cent, pushing some stock valuations down. Further, gold was down 1.6 per cent to US$1,634 per ounce while bitcoin is roughly unchanged over the last 24 hours.

New Zealand

The NZX 50 nudged higher, closing 0.6 per cent higher at 10,916.7 points, inspired by large capital stocks as the NZX 10 had a 0.7 per cent gain, slightly ahead of the market.

On what was a slim day of stock-specific news, Freightways led the movers at +5.9 per cent, while Pacific Edge was the biggest laggard (-5.2 per cent) despite a relatively positive market update on Monday.

The bi-monthly Global Dairy Trade auction also took place in the early hours of Wednesday morning, with the benchmark whole milk powder price falling 4.4 per cent to US$3,421 per tonne.

This may not have been such a negative result for the New Zealand dairy industry, with Fonterra bringing less product to market after erratic weather has hindered milk production to start the season.

Milk futures (via the SGX) for the 2023 season last traded around NZ$9.35 per kilogram, compared to the current forecast Fonterra Farmgate milk price midpoint estimate of NZ$9.25.

Australia

Australian equities also experienced modest gains by Wednesday end, posting a 0.3 per cent increase to 6,800 points.

Making headlines was Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who will meet with Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Perth this Saturday to discuss energy and security.

It is expected that Fumio will seek a handshake type deal from the Australian Prime Minister over a minimum reliable amount of gas exports, ensuring energy supply into Japan.

Energy and minerals lifted across the board as Core Lithium and Pilbara Minerals closed on the winners' podium with 8.2 and 5.8 per cent gains, respectively.

Private health insurer Medibank went into a trading halt in relation to a potential cyber incident, which was first flagged last week.

The company announced on Monday that there remains no evidence any consumer data had been taken from its IT environment. This adds to a now sizeable list of Australian corporates highlighting cyber security problems over the past few months.

Beach Energy (-1.0 per cent) posted lighter than expected quarterly production statistics, with 5.2 million barrels of oil equivalent, 8 per cent shy of the prior quarter and below consensus estimates.

Compounding the negative effect of lower production were weaker prices across its main products as realised oil and gas prices also fell mildly below expectations.

Technology company Megaport (-22.1 per cent) finished as the day's largest underperformer after an underwhelming set of first quarter results.

Similarly, gold miner St Barbara (-4.8 per cent yesterday and -21.6 per cent the previous day) continued to decline following its own quarterly update, that appeared to disappoint the market.

Coming up today

In Australia, NAB business confidence will give further insight into the current state of the Australian economy. Locally, credit card spending data will be released, along with Mainfreight hosting an investor day.

• For more information on the latest market moves, get in touch with Jarden.

All market pricing and announcements are sourced from Refinitiv, NZX and ASX.

The Jarden Brief is provided for general information purposes only. It reflects views and research available at the time of publication, using external sources, systems and other data and information we believe to be accurate, complete and reliable at the time of preparation.  We make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, correctness and completeness of that information, and will not be liable or responsible for any error or omission.  The Jarden Brief is not to be relied upon as a basis for making any investment decision. Please seek specific investment advice before making any investment decision. Jarden Securities Limited is an NZX Firm.  A financial advice disclosure statement is available free of charge at https://www.jarden.co.nz/our-services/wealth-management/financial-advice-provider-disclosure-statement/.
Full disclaimer available at: https://www.jarden.co.nz/wealth-sales-and-research-disclaimer

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