KEY POINTS:
The only really bad headline National had all last year was one saying it could govern alone. That's unlikely. The published polls show National with a majority among decided voters. What you don't see is the number of undecided voters. When the views of all respondents are considered,
the single party majority disappears.
New Zealanders didn't vote for MMP to allow a single party to govern. Coalition deals will probably be needed. The difference between the old first-past-the-post system is that coalitions are formed after, not before, election day.
It might be possible to win enough support to govern alone, but MMP is the new team game. If you want to survive long in Government you need coalition friends.
New polling shows some fascinating coalition and policy combinations are possible this year.
Nearly six out of 10 New Zealanders believe National has the best chance of leading the formation of the next Government.
National voters are confident - 90 out of every 100 expect this. Among other parties' voters, 52 per cent of New Zealand First's and 78 per cent of United Future's also say National have the best chance of forming a coalition.
Sixty-four out of every 100 Labour voters still think Labour has the best chance of forming a coalition, a view shared by Green, Jim Anderton's Progressive, and Maori Party voters. Those newly eligible to vote favour Labour's chances by 48 per cent, to National's 30 per cent.
And among all voters, Green is the most-favoured coalition partner for National and Labour, so a betting person would say John Key will need to stitch up a deal with the Greens.
Helen Clark has proved the master at MMP coalition-making, and now she and Key will need to develop some long-term policies to get widespread support from supporters of a number of parties.
If National seeks a partnership with the Greens or the Maori Party, it is not too hard to see where core policy conflicts might arise.
However, how about a National-Green-Maori-New Zealand First-Act Party cross deal on bringing in a flat tax? Such a policy would also deliver a large proportion of undecided and newly eligible voters.
Or a National-Green-Maori pact on emissions trading and climate change, which might also deliver 44 per cent of undecided voters and 51 per cent of those voting for the first time who back plans for a new carbon market?
Or a health policy deal gaining support from all voters to bring judicious use of public-private partnerships to boost elective surgery capacity and cut waiting lists? And separating urgent from elective surgery at public hospitals - so those who have been waiting patiently for operations are not bumped at the last moment by car crash victims?
Such a plank will enjoy cross-party support, and National already has it in its discussion documents, but it may need to walk away from talk of removing the review process which caps doctors' fees.
One of the biggest, if not the biggest, issues for this year will be tax reform. People think the Government, spending $55 billion a year, has enough money to make sure all Kiwis are given a fair go.
However, if bold tax reforms are chosen, they want to make sure social services and equity are retained and we continue to have a country people enjoy living in.
Maintaining this social equity, delivering new policies to cut taxes while still spending more (and more effectively) in areas such as health will be critical in deciding the outcome.
When asked about what impact tax reforms will have on their vote this year, 48 per cent say achieving a balance between personal income tax cuts and maintaining social spending will be the main influence on which party they vote for (32 per cent will be swayed by policies other than tax and 13 per cent by tax policy alone).
So a big tax cut policy alone, which did not get National over the line in 2005, may still not work.
But a cut in personal and corporate taxes to a flat rate of 20c will draw more approval than disapproval among Green-Maori-New Zealand First-Act voters because major cuts like these would be paid for by new forms of revenue, such as increasing GST from 12.5 per cent to 20 per cent, while fully compensating people on benefits and lower incomes for the price rises and other day-one impacts.
To make it acceptable, a policy will probably be needed to extend Working for Families tax breaks to working people without families, and boost benefits ahead of lifting GST. It is affordable and probably much easier for an incumbent government to do than an opposition to promise.
At last the country could see social equity issues and our need for wealth generation addressed at the same time. Corporates might also decide to pay their taxes here, rather than in other countries.
While the Government continued to run cash surpluses and spend 31 per cent of gross domestic product, wealth-creators would keep and invest 80 cents of every dollar they earn.
At last we might have another tool to fight the skills drain. The research shows the deals are there to be done. Among Green voters, National and Labour's most preferred coalition partner, according to the polling, a single-rate tax policy will get the backing of 65 out of every 100 of its supporters. So the best bedfellow on bold tax reform - which also retains social equity - is the Greens.
The challenge for the main parties now is to break free from old policy paradigms. Kiwis will go for bold if New Zealand is to do better long term from the change. They will back innovation, and will support economic growth. The caveat is don't wreck the place while we're doing that. Keep the social and environmental fabric intact, and preferably enhance it.
So who will be bold with long-term, equitable, reform policies in tax, education, health and climate change? That party will have the best chance of forming the next MMP government.
* Peter Neilson is the Chief Executive of the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development.
